Draft March 2005
Idaho Natural Production, Monitoring & Evaluation
Statement of Work and Budget FY2005

BPA Project Number:  1991-073-00
BPA Project Title: Idaho Natural Production, Monitoring & Evaluation
Contract Number:  18667
Contract Title: Idaho Natural Production, Monitoring & Evaluation
Performance/Budget Period: July 1, 2005 through June 30, 2006

ADMINISTRATIVE SUMMARY
     The goal of the Idaho Natural Production Monitoring & Evaluation Project (INPMEP) is to understand and predict the population dynamics and associated controlling factors of wild and natural anadromous salmonids that spawn upstream from Lower Granite Dam (LGD). Towards this goal, INPMEP cooperates with and complements the other projects in the Idaho Anadromous Natural Production Program (Idaho Supplementation Studies and Steelhead Supplementation Studies) as well as research conducted by other resource management entities operating in areas upstream from LGD. This Statement of Work is for fiscal year 2005 (July 1, 2005 through June 30, 2006).

RELATIONSHIP TO SALMONID RECOVERY PLANNING & MANAGEMENT
     Current mandates for research and monitoring directed at natural production of anadromous salmonids are derived from two sources: the Northwest Power & Conservation Council (NPCC) and the 2000 National Marine Fisheries Service Biological Opinion on the operation of the Federal Hydrosystem (BIOP). These are further explicated and directed by Interior Columbia Basin Technical Recovery Team (ICBTRT), the Federal Caucus Basinwide Salmon Recovery Strategy (FCBSRS), Columbia
Basin Fish and Wildlife Program (CBFWP), NPCC subbasin assessments, and the draft Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation (RME) plan. Specifically, the Reasonable and Prudent Alternative (RPA) Action 180 of the NMFS BIOP calls for the development of hierarchical basin wide monitoring programs to collaborate with regional agencies, such as IDFG, to determine population and environmental status. Agencies have primary responsibility for data collection (BIOP p 9-165). On the
state level, the IDFG 2001-2006 Fisheries Management Plan also identifies monitoring and evaluation as crucial to conservation and management of anadromous fish populations.
     INPMEP has produced data relevant to evaluation of downstream passage and off-site mitigation issues for anadromous fishes in the Mountain Snake Province. INPMEP acts as an accounting system for downstream passage mitigation projects (CBFWP section 9.6). However, performance of the RPA is evaluated also in terms of population growth rate, abundance, genetic and life history diversity, and spatial distribution within ESU. This is addressed in the draft Tributary RME plan and uses
the types of data INMPEP has gathered. RME programs should address at least 2 of 3 tiers of detail: population (Tier 1), life cycle (Tier 2), and site-specific (Tier 3). INPMEP currently addresses Tier 1 and Tier 2 goals under this system. The draft RME plan calls for continuing trend monitoring while developing more statistically-defensible probabilistic study designs. The Independent Scientific Review Panel (ISRP) recommends a thorough exploration of current data prior to such efforts. INPMEP is uniquely
uniquely positioned to do so.
     In summary, INPMEP has been of great benefit to salmon assessment and management efforts. Much of the status information on Snake River spring/summer Chinook presented in the BIOP was developed from data gathered by INPMEP. ICBTRT lists this project as meeting tributary monitoring needs. With appropriate evaluation, and planning, INPMEP will continue to develop relevant data for
salmon management in Idaho.

COORDINATION
     INPMEP uses data from a variety of sources scattered across the portion of the Snake River drainage that is upstream of LGR and accessible to anadromous salmonids. Collection of these data requires coordination and cooperation among numerous agencies and projects, e.g. the the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), the United States Forest Service (USFS), the Nez Perce Tribe (NPT), the Shoshone-Bannock Tribes (SBT), Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW),
and local stakeholder groups (e.g. county Soil and Water Conservation Districts).  Internal IDFG cooperators include the Idaho Supplementation Supplementation Studies (ISS, projects 198909800, 198909801, and 198909802), Chinook Captive Rearing Monitoring & Evaluation (1997-001-00), Lower Snake River Compensation Plan Evaluation,  and Steelhead Supplementation Studies (SSS,
project 199005500)) as well as IDFG regional fisheries biologists and managers.
     INPMEP provides data to cooperators. Project data is uploaded to the Columbia Basin PIT tag database (PTAGIS). This project also manages and maintains the long-term salmon and steelhead general parr monitoring (GPM) database and coordinates redd count surveys. These data track historical trends and current status of salmon and steelhead populations in Idaho, as well as populations of resident fishes, and provide information on physical stream habitat characteristics. Data generated
by this project are used to assess annual migrations and the effect of the federal hydrosystem upon them. However, there are many other potential applications for INPMEP data. For example, GPM data have been used in recent status reviews of westslope cutthroat and bull trout. Indeed, the NPCC Clearwater Subbasin Inventory cites GPM as the most requested data by other agencies and consultants (p. 60).

PROJECT HISTORY & CURRENT STATUS
     The INPMEP has been evolving for 20 years. It was originally established as project number 1983-007-00. Project goals were to monitor natural production of anadromous fish and evaluate off-site habitat mitigation projects funded by Bonneville Power Administration. The original project split into general and intensive monitoring components. General monitoring followed anadromous fish production and population trends over a broad geographic area. Intensive studies investigated life
cycle survival at 2 sites to develop quantitative criteria to guide management. Both components continued through the 1990s as project number 1991-073-00. Project focus changed with the listing of Snake River spring/summer Chinook and steelhead under the Endangered Species Act. Salmon escapement declined such that survival could not be estimated with intensive studies but had to be done in aggregate. Thus, the intensive studies were expanded to a basin-wide scale and evaluation of
specific habitat projects was not done, while general monitoring continued as before.
     Currently, INPMEP monitors the spring/summer Chinook salmon and steelhead trout populations in the Salmon, Clearwater, and other middle Snake tributaries.  Present project components include GPM, estimation of juvenile production, and measurement of escapement and spawning. Recent analyses of GPM trends in parr abundance across 11 generations showed that replacement for the Snake River spring/summer Chinook ESU occurred 20% of the time. To increase accuracy of smolt-
to-adult-return (SAR) estimates for the basin, INPMEP personnel have developed techniques to accurately age returning adult Chinook and assign them to the appropriate migratory year. Ageing results for known-age fish were 98% accurate. Basin-wide data were used to develop a stock-recruitment relationship to forecast smolt production. Mean production for Idaho's rearing habitat was 240 smolts-per-female during 1990-2000. Project personnel have worked to increase numbers of wild
steelhead parr tagged annually. Since 1999, project personnel have tagged 35,654 individuals, averaging over 5900 per year.
     Currently INPMEP objectives are being evaluated and new directions considered. ISRP and other entities have stressed the need for probabilistic sampling that is linked to historical trend data sets. We believe INPMEP data should be examined and rigorously evaluated before such a program can be
designed. Also, recent increases in anadromous runs offer several opportunities. Larger numbers of salmon mean that population-scale evaluations may be feasible once again. Research at this level will enable management efforts to be efficiently focused. Such research will also allow effective evaluation of habitat projects, one of the original objectives of INPMEP. This foundation should be laid
in the following objectives.

PROJECT OBJECTIVES
     Within the overall goal of INPMEP, we would like to answer several broad questions: What is the production of wild and natural juvenile anadromous salmonids in Idaho? How and why does this production vary? What are the numbers of spawning adults returning each year? How are adult returns structured across the landscape and in time? The answers should link salmon life stages in time and space, thus providing an understanding of population persistence. Project objectives and tasks are
directed towards answering these questions by evaluating models and testing hypotheses. Results should be applicable to management and should identify key gaps in the data necessary for conservation.

Objective 1. Correlate parr density of spring/summer Chinook to counts of the parental generation and the subsequent smolt migration. The intent of this objective is to describe relationships on a basin-wide scale and for individual populations where possible. This objective examines the productivity of Idaho's habitat for anadromous salmonids. Analysis of patterns in the data may suggest controlling factors.
We will consider the effects of population-level and inter-annual variation.

Objective 2. Measure 2005 adult escapement and describe age structure of the wild/natural spawning run of spring/summer Chinook in the Salmon River basin. The first part of the objective relates back to Objective 1. The second part is essential for the completion of Objective 3. Additionally, this information will help confirm or refute ICBTRT population delineations. We
hypothesize that several factors may affect accuracy of estimated age composition.

Objective 3. Investigate basin-wide aggregate life cycle survival rates for wild and naturally produced spring/summer Chinook salmon populations above LGR from 1990 to the present. Objective 3 links life stages through time. This objective considers stage-structured constraints on salmon populations and provides a means of evaluating ocean and hydrosystem effects that influence Snake River anadromous salmonids as a unit. Other IDFG personnel are assessing finer-scale effects on passage survival,
so this project will not duplicate their efforts. Methods will duplicate those reported previously in annual reports submitted by this project.

Objective 4. Increase precision of aggregate SAR estimates of wild/natural steelhead that spawn above LGR. This objective provides support for the Comparative Survival Study analysis of downstream passage issues. This year we plan to cooperate with the Lemhi River Conservation Plan group by conducting PIT tagging operations in the Hayden Creek watershed.

Objective 5. Describe genetic stock structure and composition of adult Snake River spring/summer Chinook salmon. Management and recovery efforts are focused at the population level, so this is a logical step. The ICBTRT listed and prioritized research needs for population structure in the Snake River spring/summer Chinook ESU. Top priority is given to fine-scale genetic data. Currently, INMEP has archived tissues samples from spawning ground surveys since 1996. These need to be analyzed and
genetic structure described. Genetic structure will serve as a foundation for future population research. Additionally, straying rates, effective population sizes, and probability of genetic bottlenecks can be
assessed.