For the period May 15, 2022 - May 14, 2023, Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (CRITFC) staff will continue to collaborate with the tribes, federal and state agencies, university staff and other regional entities in identifying climate change impacts to the First Foods of the CRITFC member tribes (Umatilla, New Perce, Yakama Nation and Warm Springs), and assisting with the development of adaptation responses to these impacts. This includes contributing to increasing the scientific robustness of ongoing climate change studies in the Columbia River Basin. This project will continue to evaluate and use the most current climate scenarios available for the region, in order to best inform adaptation planning. See the Gantt Chart (attachment under the Documents Tab) for the project's four-year Accord period (2019-2022) for more details.

Project objectives for the new project period will include the following:

1) Estimate Changes in Mainstem Hydrology, Water Quality and Aquatic First Foods Due to Climate Change Impacts
Staff will continue to assess and develop adaptation strategies for changes to seasonal water quantity, water quality, and native fish populations under future climate change scenarios.  Work tasks will include (i) collaboration with regional entities to share climate impact and adaptation information; (ii) the application of hydro-regulation scenario data developed in this project using the CRITFC Information System (CIS) with new regional models of water temperature, fish survival, and fish habitat; (iii) the development of sub-model metrics from these regional model simulations; and the (iv) the integration of updated climate change/hydrological data from regional entities when available into the CRITFC hydro-regulation program for future simulations. Staff will also continue development of CRITFC Coastal Margin Observation and Prediction SCHISM hydrodynamic modeling of the estuary and near-ocean as it relates to climate change. This will include 1) the development of a SCHISM-based model of climate change impacts on salmon and lamprey in the Columbia River estuary and coastal ocean. Climate change scenarios evaluated will include sea-level rise, climate model derived atmospheric and ocean boundary forcing, RBM-10 river temperatures, Bonneville River discharge under baseline and ecosystem function scenarios, 2) development of a SCHISM model incorporating pre-development bathymetry and topography of the Columbia River estuary, run under historical conditions, pre-development conditions, and the climate change scenarios described above. This model will provide a point of comparison of loss of ecosystem function due to late 19th and 20th century development of the estuary versus loss of function under climate change and provide a maximal estimate of potential mitigation of climate change effects through habitat restoration in the estuary. The SCHISM model will be integrated into CIS as a secondary model.

2) Assess Climate Change Impacts on Tributary Hydrology, Water Quality, Habitats, and Native Aquatic Species
Staff will continue to assess climate change impacts in tributary systems and develop adaptation responses to these impacts. Focus will be on evaluating the current and future (climate-changed influenced) condition of the tributary watersheds that support cold water refugia in Zone 6 of the mainstem Columbia River (between Bonneville and McNary dams). This will include the development of a climate change tool that will be useful for future predictions of discharge and sediment load in the cold-water refuges in relation to climate change parameters such as precipitation, temperature, and snowpack melts. This will provide a matrix of best habitat and migratory conditions in the cold-water refuges.

3) Provide Technical Assistance and Data to our Tribes for their Climate Change Adaptation Efforts
Staff will continue to provide technical assistance and data to CRITFC tribes for their climate change adaptation efforts. Specific activities to achieve this objective during this period will include (i) Integrating results from mainstem and tributary analyses performed by this project into the updated CRITFC/Tribal fish restoration plan (“Wy-Kan-Ush-Mi-Wa-Kish-Wit”); (ii) Maintaining and enhancing the CRITFC Climate Change Scientific Resources website; and (iii) Providing technical assistance with climate change adaptation efforts as requested by tribal staff and leaders.

Staff will continue to monitor and update assessment of regional needs and opportunities for collaborative research and analyses in climate change. Where possible, seek collaboration with the government agencies that are addressing climate change and natural resource impacts (USGS, USFWS, NW Power and Conservation Council, Corps of Engineers, BPA, Bureau of Reclamation, state agencies and academic institutions) to obtain the best updated climate information in order to apply this information to tribal and other regional climate adaptation plans, resiliency actions and research and modeling.

4) Participate and Contribute to Regional Climate Change-focused Processes, Including Technical and Policy Coordination
Staff will continue to communicate and coordinate and provide technical and policy review for regional climate change-focused efforts with CRITFC’s member tribes and other regional stakeholders (federal, state, local, and academic programs). Specific activities to achieve this objective during this period will include participating in regional climate meetings such as the Columbia River Forecast Group, Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians (ATNI), and the PNW Climate Science Conference. Staff will continue to serve as a board member on regional climate groups (Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center, Climate Impacts Research Consortium, ATNI Climate workgroup). Staff will participate in national tribal efforts in the development of a tribal climate strategy.

CRITFC staff will work with Tribes, EPA, Oregon, Washington, NOAA, and State Agencies staff to identify cold water refuges currently available and potentially available for use by migrating salmon, assess the sufficiency of the refuges, and identify strategies to restore, enhance, and protect high quality refuge areas for the future.

CRITFC staff will continue to coordinate with the Environmental Protection Agency and the states of Oregon and Washington on the implementation of the Columbia/Lower Snake Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for temperature.