BPA Climate Change Project (May 15, 2023 - May 14, 2024)

Project Summary

For the period May 15, 2023 - May 14, 2024, Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (CRITFC) staff will continue to collaborate with the tribes, federal and state agencies, university staff and other regional entities in identifying climate change impacts to the First Foods of the CRITFC member tribes (Umatilla, New Perce, Yakama Nation and Warm Springs), and assisting with the development of adaptation responses to these impacts. This includes contributing to increasing the scientific robustness of ongoing climate change studies in the Columbia River Basin. This project will continue to evaluate and use the most current climate scenarios available for the region, in order to best inform adaptation planning. See the attached Gantt Chart for a list of planned tasks and their timelines.
Project objectives for the new project period will include the following:

1) Estimate Changes in Mainstem Hydrology, Water Quality and Aquatic First Foods Due to Climate Change Impacts
Staff will continue to assess and develop adaptation strategies for changes to seasonal water quantity, water quality, and native fish populations in the Columbia and Snake River mainstems under future climate change scenarios.  Work tasks will include (i) collaboration with regional entities to share climate impact and adaptation information; (ii) implementation of OASIS and PLEXOS (in collaboration with National Renewable Energy Laboratory) models for hydro system and operational analysis and integrated energy and water modelling for the Columbia River; (iii) the application of hydro-regulation scenario data developed using the CRITFC Information System (CIS), OASIS and PLEXOS models with other concurrent regional models of water temperature, fish survival, and fish habitat; (iv) the development of sub-model metrics from these regional model simulations; and  (v) the integration of updated climate change/hydrological data from regional entities when available into the CRITFC hydro-regulation program for future simulations.

2)  Assess Climate Change Impacts on Tributary Hydrology, Water Quality, Habitats, and Native Aquatic Species
Staff will continue to assess climate change impacts in tributary systems and develop adaptation responses to these impacts. Focus will be on evaluating the current and future (climate-changed influenced) conditions of the tributary watersheds that support cold water refugia in Zone 6 of the mainstem Columbia River (between Bonneville and McNary dams). This will include the development of a climate change tool based on Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling approach that will be useful for future predictions of discharge, runoff and sediment loads in the cold-water refuges in relation to climate change parameters such as precipitation, temperature, and snowpack melts. This will provide a matrix of best habitat and migratory conditions in the cold-water refuges.

3) Assess Climate Change Impacts on Aquatic First Foods in the Pacific Ocean and Columbia Estuary Conditions
Staff will continue to develop the CRITFC Coastal Margin Observation and Prediction CMOP SCHISM hydrodynamic modeling of the estuary and near-ocean as it relates to climate change. This will include work on the following objectives: 1) making improvements to the CMOP SCHISM model to better represent tidal wetlands, through the incorporation of minor tributaries, increased resolution in tidal wetlands, inclusion and calibration of the submerged aquatic vegetation sub-model within SCHISM, and development of new metrics for evaluating ecosystem impacts on juvenile salmon and lamprey; 2) developing a SCHISM-based model of climate change impacts on salmon and lamprey in the Columbia River estuary and coastal ocean, including evaluating climate change scenarios for i) sea-level rise, ii) climate model derived atmospheric and ocean boundary forcing, iii) RBM-10 river temperatures, and iv) Bonneville River discharge under baseline and ecosystem function scenarios; 3) developing a SCHISM model incorporating pre-development bathymetry and topography of the Columbia River estuary, run under historical conditions, pre-development conditions, and the climate change scenarios described above. This model will provide a point of comparison of loss of ecosystem function due to late 19th and 20th century development of the estuary versus loss of function under climate change and provide a maximal estimate of potential mitigation of climate change effects through habitat restoration in the estuary.
Staff will disseminate raw and summary data and results of estuary and ocean climate change impacts through the CRITFC and regional (NANOOS) websites, through regional and national scientific and management forums, and through peer reviewed publications. Distribution of information through the CRITFC web site will include updates and extensions of the CMOP Climatological Atlas.
4) Provide Technical Assistance and Data to our Tribes for their Climate Change Adaptation Efforts
Staff will continue to provide technical assistance and data to CRITFC tribes for their climate change adaptation efforts. Specific activities to achieve this objective during this period will include (i)Integrating results from mainstem and tributary analyses into tribal restoration planning.; (ii) Maintaining and enhancing the CRITFC Climate Change Scientific Resources website; (iii) Collaborating with the Upper Snake River Tribes on the development of a climate action resilience database to assist tribal climate adaptation, and (iv) Providing technical assistance with climate change adaptation efforts as requested by tribal staff and leaders.

Staff will continue to monitor and update assessment of regional needs and opportunities for collaborative research and analyses in climate change. Where possible, seek collaboration with the government agencies that are addressing climate change and natural resource impacts (USGS, USFWS, NW Power and Conservation Council, Corps of Engineers, BPA, Bureau of Reclamation, state agencies and academic institutions) to obtain the best updated climate information in order to apply this information to tribal and other regional climate adaptation plans, resiliency actions and research and modeling.

CRITFC Staff will continue to be actively involved in the Columbia River Delta Assessment initiated by the Yakama Nation (in coordination with CRITFC and its other member tribes) and US Army Corps of Engineers. The goal of the study is to assess changes in sedimentation and its impact on salmonids and Pacific Lamprey at the confluences of the Klickitat, White Salmon and Wind River tributaries.  

5) Participate and Contribute to Regional Climate Change-focused Processes, Including Technical and Policy Coordination

Staff will continue to communicate and coordinate and provide technical and policy review for regional climate change-focused efforts with CRITFC’s member tribes and other regional stakeholders (federal, state, local, and academic programs). Specific activities to achieve this objective during this period will include participating in regional climate meetings such as the Columbia River Forecast Group, Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians (ATNI), and the PNW Climate Science Conference. Staff will continue to serve as a board member on regional climate groups (Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center, Climate Impacts Research Consortium, ATNI Climate workgroup). Staff will participate in national tribal efforts in the development of a tribal climate strategy. CRITFC staff will work with Tribes, EPA, Oregon, Washington, NOAA, and State Agencies staff to identify cold water refuges currently available and potentially available for use by migrating salmon, assess the sufficiency of the refuges, and identify strategies to restore, enhance, and protect high quality refuge areas for the future. CRITFC staff will continue to coordinate with the Environmental Protection Agency and the states of Oregon and Washington on the implementation of the Columbia/Lower Snake Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for temperature.