The primary emphasis of the project is to monitor and estimate the abundance and survival of adult and juvenile sockeye salmon originating from the upper Columbia Basin (Okanogan and Wenatchee River stocks). The proponents’ partnerships with Department of Fisheries and Oceans, (DFO), the Okanagan Nation Alliance (ONA) along with other entities (e.g., GPUD, DPUD, CPUD, USGS, CTCR, YN,) have substantially increased the scope and types of monitoring data being collected. When the project first underwent review by the ISRP in 2009, four issues or questions were raised:

1. What factors were contributing to adult sockeye mortality in the Okanogan River?

2. What are the roles of habitat characteristics and water quality on adult sockeye survival in the Okanogan subbasin?

3. What factors limit sockeye abundance in the Okanogan subbasin?

4. What factors limit sockeye abundance in Lake Wenatchee?

Monitoring data from the project have helped address these questions. Currently, the proponents and their partners are seeking opportunities to upgrade and increase PIT tag detection arrays in the Okanogan River and in the mainstem Columbia to further refine their efforts to track trends in abundance, survival, migration timing, productivity, and spatial distribution of upper Columbia River sockeye.

The value of any monitoring project depends on the questions and hypotheses being investigated and addressed, the accuracy and precision of the data collected, how rapidly these data become available, and how they are utilized by managers, researchers, or other interested parties.

The ISRP’s recommended Conditions are listed below. The proponents need to assist with development of an M&E Matrix during the response loop (September 24 to November 22, 2021) and to provide information to address the other following Conditions in future annual reports and work plans.

1. M&E matrix - support. As habitat projects and monitoring projects are not presented as part of an integrated proposal or plan, the need for a crosswalk to identify the linkages between implementation and monitoring is extremely important for basins or geographic areas. The ISRP is requesting a response from the Upper Columbia River Programmatic Habitat Project (201000100) to summarize the linkages between implementation and monitoring projects in the Wenatchee, Entiat, Methow, and Okanogan subbasins. During the response loop, we ask this project to assist them in creating the summary and provide information to them about what is being monitored for this implementation project and where and when the monitoring occurs. A map or maps of locations of monitoring actions would be helpful in this regard.
2. Use of M&E assessments. Describe how expected monitoring and evaluation outcomes will be used, and by whom.
3. Biological goals and objectives. Describe the biological goals and objectives related to the Problem Statement that will be addressed over the next funding period?
4. Sockeye adult migration comparison. Provide additional information to justify the conclusion that adult sockeye entering the (cooler) Similkameen River did not fare as well as sockeye that did not enter the Similkameen River. It is not clear to us from the headings in Table 5 or the accompanying text how survival for these two groups can be compared.
5. Sockeye response to climate and other factors. Discuss how detected responses by sockeye would be attributed to changes in climate rather than changes in other confounding factors such as spawning densities, fry outplants, hydrosystem operations, and habitat accessibility.

Q1: Clearly defined objectives and outcomes

The Problem Statement provides background on trends in status and current concerns about the future of the two largest sockeye populations in the Columbia River.

The project’s five goals focus narrowly on monitoring and evaluation: maintaining a system for detecting PIT tags, assessing smolt abundance and productivity, assessing juvenile downstream survival, assessing adult upstream survival, and holding sockeye symposia.

The objectives also focus on specific monitoring and evaluation tasks (i.e., are "implementation" rather than "biological" objectives). Each implementation objective is supplemented with a list of definite activities. Although not mentioned specifically, the objectives are annual tasks and thus are time-bound. The fifth goal, to sponsor and lead sockeye symposia at professional meetings, is more opportunistic and is being used by the proponents to share findings from their project. Most of the project’s objectives include enough quantitative detail to meet SMART criteria; exceptions are 1.2 and 1.3 which merely state “look for opportunities.”

The proponents clearly indicate how their monitoring and evaluation outcomes will be reported for others to use. However, they do not discuss how or by whom these outcomes will be used to achieve larger (unstated) biological objectives or goals. Without this information, it is difficult for the ISRP to judge the value of the expected outcomes from this project.

Q2: Methods

The methods being used to accomplish the project’s implementation objectives are adequately described. Statistical analyses that examine survival and migration timing of sockeye smolts by tagging site are conducted by the Fish Passage Center. Additional data on tagged fish are acquired when needed from the Columbia Basin Research DART Tag File Selection tool. Other project partners — Okanagan Native Alliance (ONA), USGS, Yakama Nation (YN), Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) — participate in the work being performed in Lake Wenatchee. Details on the methods used are included in the lengthy (252 pages) Annual Report for 2019. We judge these to be scientifically sound, with a few exceptions:

1. More explanation is needed to justify the proponents’ conclusion that the tag detection data summarized in Table 5 indicate that adult sockeye entering the (cooler) Similkameen River did not fare as well as sockeye that did not enter the Similkameen River. It is not clear to us from the headings in the Table or the accompanying text how survival for these two groups can be compared.
2. The proponents state (on page 12) “this project will provide valuable data on the response of sockeye salmon to a changing climate” but do not discuss how measured responses by sockeye would be attributed to changes in climate rather than changes in other confounding factors such as spawning densities, fry outplants, hydrosystem operations, and habitat accessibility.
3. Statements in the Executive Summary (page iii) of the Annual Report for 2019 about estimates of survival for juveniles migrating downstream are very confusing because the text states “percent survival” which initially seems plausible because the first estimate is “1.036.” However, the main section of the report makes it clear that these estimates are actually proportions, which can exceed 1 (i.e., 100%) because of the estimation method used.

3: Provisions for M&E

A formal adaptive management process is not described. However, monthly discussions on the status of the project occur among the project’s three principal collaborators (i.e., CRITFC, ONA, and DFO). In person meetings take place twice a year, in December after the Canadian Okanagan Basin Work Group meeting and again in March after the Bilateral Okanagan Work Group meeting. Other participants such as YN, CTCR, USGS, Queens University, WDFW, GPUD, and CPUD may be included in the monthly discussions depending upon the geographic area and topics being considered. Major topics covered change over the year, ranging from the status of ongoing fieldwork to discussing results and planning new work. These frequent communications have allowed the project to adapt to changes in technology and to meet new data needs. Thus, the project appears to have a functioning and productive adaptive management process although not a formal one.

Q4: Results – benefits to fish and wildlife

This project has developed and operated sensor arrays to detect PIT-tagged sockeye at Zosel, Skaha, and McIntyre dams and at the downstream end of the spawning areas for Osoyoos and Skaha lakes. The detection data are used to monitor survival during both downstream and upstream migration and to identify bottlenecks to survival in relation to river temperature and flow. Acoustic trawl surveys to determine juvenile abundance combined with limnological monitoring suggest that Lake Wenatchee provides excellent habitat and capacity for zooplankton production for sockeye fry that are not fully utilized by current spawning escapements.

Expected outcomes will help to identify factors limiting sockeye production and inform decisions about harvest and broodstock management and habitat accessibility.

The information generated by the proposed PIT and acoustic tagging of Wenatchee and Okanagan sockeye salmon has the potential to contribute to management of these resources. However, the ISRP identifies a number of important challenges, listed below, that should be considered concurrent with implementation. These can be in addressed in the development of a final statement of work and study design and reported in future proposals.