Comment:

In 2010, the Bonneville Power Administration addressed the need to understand salmon survival in the ocean, stating "Salmon spend most of their lives in salt water. Most don't come back to the river to spawn. If just 1 to 2 percent more juvenile salmon survived through adulthood in the ocean, the number of adult salmon that spawn would more than double" (see BPA document). Since then, BPA's need to understand ocean survival of salmon has been reaffirmed by dramatic fluctuations in ocean conditions (favorable and unfavorable) that were correlated with adult Chinook salmon and steelhead returns to the Basin. Nevertheless, funding for the Fish and Wildlife Program's research program to understand salmon survival in the ocean has been reduced by about 75%.

In this "change-of-scope" proposal, the NOAA investigators responded to the ISRP's recent (ISRP 2018-8) scientific review by providing an innovative research plan to advance quantitative understanding of the physical, biological, ecological, and ecosystem processes that impact the early ocean survival of Columbia River salmon and steelhead. The proposal focuses on the practical needs to improve forecasting of adult salmon returns and to advance decision-making about management and mitigation options in the face of future (unpredictable) changes in climate and ocean conditions. Cognizant of budgetary constraints, the NOAA investigators provided three alternative funding scenarios for project implementation. The first scenario (Option A) indicates that present funding levels cannot maintain all of the project's current field and laboratory investigations, ones that are cornerstones of this project. For example, the May survey that provides the only empirical data on juvenile steelhead and associated ocean conditions would be eliminated. Considering the current poor ocean survival of Columbia River steelhead, this loss of information is untenable to the ISRP. The second scenario (Option B) continues the May survey but does not allow implementation of the full suite of proposed objectives that advance adaptive management and mitigation practices. Thus, the ISRP recommends full implementation of the proposed project (Option C), which would include testing of hypotheses critical to understanding the top-down mechanisms (predation, predator-prey interactions) that control early ocean survival of juvenile salmonids (see ISRP 2018-8).

1. Objectives, Significance to Regional Programs, and Technical Background

This proposal is the only remaining Fish and Wildlife Program project, as well as the only project in US coastal waters, that directly addresses the effects of ocean conditions on growth and survival of Columbia River juvenile salmon and steelhead. During the past 21 years, the project has revealed several important relationships among ocean conditions, the Columbia River plume, and the distribution, abundance, and survival of juvenile Columbia River salmonids. The biological/physical objectives of the project are clearly defined. Three alternative scenarios for project implementation and scientific objectives for each option are provided. This "change of scope" proposal includes past objectives that were reviewed by the ISRP in 2018 and provides new objectives (depending on funding level). The new objectives will address the direct causes of early ocean mortality of juvenile salmonids (predation by marine birds and piscivorous fish, and reduction in abundance of forage fishes as a buffer to predation), enable quantification of the current qualitative forecasts of adult salmon returns, and lead to an ecosystem-based model to help decouple the effects of various mitigation efforts in fresh water from the effects of a changing ocean environment.

The significance of this ongoing project to the region and to mitigation and management of Columbia River salmon and steelhead is widely recognized and cannot be overstated by the ISRP. Extending the 21-year dataset and addressing the new proposed objectives are critical to the understanding of factors affecting the growth and survival of Columbia River salmonids and how management actions in the Basin may increase salmonid survival at sea. The project has continued to adapt and change in response to scientific reviews by the ISRP and to management and evaluation needs in the Basin.

The description of the technical background is outstanding and provides a review of relevant past results and anticipated quantitative results, including strong supporting information from the primary literature.

2. Results and Adaptive Management

The ISRP reviewed the results and outcomes of this project in 2018. The ISRP views this "change of scope" proposal as an adaptive response to both the ISRP's review and lessons learned from past results. The project has an outstanding record of publication in the primary scientific literature (~130 publications), participation in scientific and management meetings, presentations to the Council including the Ocean Forum that provides outreach and interaction between scientists and managers in the Basin, and public outreach through electronic and print media. Underscoring the importance of the project, in February 2019, the Seattle Times published a multi-page article that described the ongoing effort by this project to unravel factors affecting salmon survival and abundance. Another recent (March 2019) Seattle Times article discussed the project's June 2018 survey findings, indicating improved ocean survival of juvenile Chinook salmon.

3. Methods: Project Relationships, Work Types, and Deliverables

The proposal, including new objectives, is based on sound scientific principles and methods, and includes provisions for monitoring and evaluation of results. The relationships to projects both inside and outside of the Fish and Wildlife Program are clearly described. The project is well coordinated with similar projects that focus on the marine ecology and survival of salmonid populations from other regions of the USA and Canada, including collaborative data sharing, development of new and improved methods, and scientific publications. Work types and deliverables are clearly described and achievable based on past performance.

The proponents describe objectives, methods, and effort that are specific to three funding scenarios. They also provide a detailed description of how each of four objectives is dependent on each level of funding. Although NOAA Fisheries provides matching funds for this effort, project costs have increased while the overall operating budget has declined significantly since 2012. Additionally, BPA funding for two other ocean research projects (i.e., Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans; Pacific Ocean Shelf Tracking project) were eliminated in 2012. The current level of reduced funding for the NOAA Fisheries Program (Option A) would lead to reduced effort and scope (e.g., no May survey, thus missing steelhead and early migrating Chinook). Option B represents partial restoration of the budget. Option C represents full budget restoration that would include testing of hypotheses critical to understanding the top-down mechanisms (predation, predator-prey interactions) that control early ocean survival of juvenile salmonids (see ISRP 2018-8).