The ISRP reviewed this project favorably during the 2018 Research Project Status Review, and the project continues to make good progress toward achieving its objectives.

M&E matrix - support. As habitat projects and monitoring projects are not presented as part of an integrated proposal or plan, the need for a crosswalk to identify the linkages between implementation and monitoring is extremely important for basins or geographic areas. The ISRP is requesting a response from the Upper Columbia River Programmatic Habitat Project (201000100) to summarize the linkages between implementation and monitoring projects in the Wenatchee, Entiat, Methow, and Okanogan subbasins. During the response loop (September 24 to November 22, 2021), we ask this project to assist them in creating the summary and provide information to them about what is being monitored by this project and where and when the monitoring occurs. A map or maps of locations of monitoring actions would be helpful in this regard.

Q1: Clearly defined objectives and outcomes

The three goals and four objectives are well linked to the problem statement. Goal 1 (“Evaluate the genetic effects of hatchery propagation on the wild steelhead in the Methow basin”) was revised to include previous Objectives 1 and 3 (now called Objectives 1A and 1B), which address genetic effects during the first and second generations, respectively. Goal 2 (“Improve understanding of the differences between hatchery and wild steelhead to inform hatchery practices”) includes previous Objective 2 (unchanged). Goal 3 (“Evaluate the reproductive viability of reconditioned wild steelhead kelts”) includes new Objective 3. The “Short Description” section of the proposal refers to the previous objectives rather than the new objectives.

Each of the four objectives is clearly specified by one or more null hypotheses that are measurable, testable, and relevant to the Council’s Program. Timelines for the objectives are clearly specified and being met. The project’s end-date has been extended to test the effectiveness of hatchery reforms and innovations to improve the relative reproductive success (RRS) of hatchery steelhead in the natural environment. The extended study will measure improvements in RRS from using local broodstock and rearing smolts to age 2 and evaluate the reproductive success of reconditioned kelts relative to wild maiden spawners.

Q2: Methods

The proposal includes a comprehensive overview of methods and the most recent Annual Report (Goodman et al. 2020) provides greater detail supported by links through MonitoringResources.org and data. Accepted methods are being used to trap, sample, and enumerate downstream juveniles and returning adults. DNA-based pedigree procedures are used to identify and enumerate parr, smolts, and adults produced by steelhead spawning naturally. A generalized linear model is used to estimate the degree to which reproductive success in male and female steelhead is affected by demographic and biological variables such as fish origin, fork length, run timing, spawner density, pHOS, and somatic lipid content.

Figure 2 shows large variation in the number of offspring in relation to lipid content. It would have been useful to include statistical results for these regressions and to explain the influence of parental type. Might lipid content reflect degree of maturation at the time of sampling such that more mature fish had already incorporated somatic lipids into gametes or metabolism? Was there a seasonal trend?

The proponents acknowledge the ISRP’s concern (expressed in ISRP 2010, 2018) that the long history of transplants and hatchery releases into the Methow River might lead to underestimation of genetic impacts of hatchery fish on wild fish in other rivers without a history of transplants. However, they note that historical effects of hatchery propagation are widespread in the Columbia Basin, so the management implications of this study are still relevant.

Q3: Provisions for M&E

Hatchery supplementation necessarily involves multiple jurisdictions and interest groups. This project is closely linked with two other BPA projects: 199305600 (Advance Hatchery Reform) and 200845800 (Upper Columbia Steelhead Kelt Reconditioning). The proponents provide a clear and succinct overview of the process and schedule for planning and coordinating activities among these groups, and for evaluating and adjusting protocols as needed.

The precision of estimates of RRS measured at the adult (i.e., final) stage would be improved if a greater proportion of adults returning to the Twisp River could be trapped and sampled. The proponents indicate in their Annual Report for 2019 that, in some years, more adults spawned below the weir than above it. Accordingly, in 2017, they began releasing hatchery progeny farther upstream, hoping that this new release site would motivate more of the returning adults to migrate past the weir where they could be sampled. The proposal does not indicate if this or other adjustments have improved the sampling rate for adults. Future proposals could be improved by including a power analysis to determine if sampling rates of adults (and juveniles) are optimal (or adequate) for detecting statistical differences in reproductive success within the proposed time frame of the study. That said, results to date provide considerable reassurance that the study can achieve its objectives.

Q4: Results – benefits to fish and wildlife

This project is meeting objectives, successfully testing hypotheses, and generating results that will benefit fish and wildlife.

Results to date span three generations (12 brood years from 2009-2018) and confirm that average reproductive success of hatchery females and hatchery males spawning naturally in the Twisp River was significantly lower than that of their wild counterparts when measured at the age-1, age-2, and smolt life stages. The similarity in survival from age-1 parr to smolt stages in progeny of Wells broodstock suggests that the fitness impacts are occurring at spawning or early in life prior to age 1. Few significant differences in RRS have been detected at the adult stage, but returns of adults are still incomplete for many brood years, and statistical power has been limited by the relatively small number of adults available for sampling. Note that the caption for Figure 1 is incorrect – female RRS is presented in the top frame, male RRS in the bottom frame.

Knowing the environmental or genetic mechanisms that reduce RRS is key to redesigning hatchery protocols. This project was the first to document the effect of somatic lipid content on RRS. It will now field test recommendations (from the Advance Hatchery Reform project) to release steelhead smolts at age 2 rather than age 1 as a strategy to reduce the prevalence of residual males and minijacks that have adverse consequences for natural populations. Analysis of RRS of second-generation natural spawners is partially complete for the Wells hatchery-origin experiment, but only just beginning for the local Twisp hatchery-origin experiment.

Future proposals and annual reports could be improved by including additional hypotheses and details to explain how the proponents plan to distinguish environmental and genetic effects on fitness. Presumably, persistent differences in RRS of Twisp hatchery-origin fish spawning naturally in the second generation after hatchery release would demonstrate genetic effects on fitness due to hatchery supplementation. In contrast, persistently lower reproductive success in the Wells hatchery line could be attributed to the non-local provenance (i.e., less well adapted traits) of that brood line. However, improvement in RRS over successive generations in the progeny of Wells hatchery-origin would provide evidence for genetic adaptation of non-local hatchery fish to the natural environment of the Twisp River.

The project has already successfully evaluated reproductive success for 11 reconditioned wild female kelts and shown that they are reproductively viable and produce more offspring than maiden-spawning wild females. The proposed adjustments to the project will allow these and other issues related to hatchery reform to be researched more thoroughly.