1999-020-00: Proposals

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Proposals

A Proposal is an application to continue existing work or start new work. While historically the Program solicited for all types of projects at once, starting in fiscal year 2009, the Northwest Power and Conservation Council and BPA are reviewing and soliciting for projects that are similar in nature and intent. These "categorical" reviews started with Wildlife projects and continue with Research, Monitoring, & Evaluation (RME) and Artificial Production (Hatchery) projects.

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Project 1999-020-00 - Analyze Persistence and Dynamics in Chinook Redds

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	Proposal Number	Proposal Version	Type	State	Project	Title	Description	Creator	Percent Complete	Proposal Budget Limit	Create Date	Last Updated	Primary Contact	Proponent	Purpose	Emphasis	Solicitation	Portfolio	Biop Fish Accord
		Proposal Version 1	Existing Project	Pending BPA Response				Russell Thurow


	RMECAT-1999-020-00	Proposal Version 1	Existing Project	Pending BPA Response	1999-020-00	Analyze the Persistence and Spatial Dynamics of Chinook Salmon	Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) stocks in the Snake River ESU (Ecologically Significant Unit) have been listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) since 1992. In 1994, an estimated 1,880 naturally produced spring/summer Chinook salmon reached Lower Granite Dam (NMFS 1995), compared to an estimated production of 1.5 million Chinook salmon in the late 1880’s (Bevan et al. 1994). Within four tributaries to the Middle Fork Salmon River (MFSR) in central Idaho, spring/summer Chinook salmon redd counts in index areas declined from more than 2,000 redds in the 1960s (Hassemer 1993) to 11 in 1995 (Thurow 2000). In response to declining populations and ESA requirements, agencies have adopted policies in an attempt to conserve and restore remaining Chinook salmon populations. These efforts have included measures to maintain genetic integrity of remaining wild stocks, reduce passage mortality by improving conditions in the migration corridor, reduce the effects of exotics, restrict sport and commercial harvest, and conserve or restore remaining critical habitat (Lee et al. 1997; NWPPC 2000; IDFG 2001). The conventional approach to managing critical habitat has focused on conserving or restoring the quality of habitats considered essential for life stages of Chinook salmon. While maintaining the quality habitats is essential, there is growing concern that the size and spacing of habitats also needs to be considered (Krohn 1992). Simberloff (1988) suggested that effective conservation may also require maintaining or restoring a critical amount or mosaic of habitat. Despite growing recognition among scientists that persistence of populations and maintenance of intraspecific diversity may depend on such broad scale ecological processes and habitat features (i.e., habitat size and context) in addition to smaller scale characteristics such as local habitat quality, empirical evidence is lacking. A growing body of literature has emphasized the “potential” importance of larger scale processes and spatial concepts to conservation of declining native fish stocks (Frissell et al. 1993; Rieman and McIntyre 1993; Bisson 1995; Reeves et al. 1995; Schlosser and Angermeier 1995; NRC 1996). Theory suggests large scale spatial concepts may be important to persistence (Simberloff 1988; Krohn 1992; Frissell et al. 1993) but there is little empirical evidence to evaluate or guide the application of these concepts to salmonids (Rieman and Dunham 2000; Dunham et al. 2002). The relevance of these concepts to declining populations of Chinook salmon has been unknown. Effective conservation and restoration strategies for Chinook salmon and other at-risk fishes will depend on information collected at spatial and temporal scales that match the species’ life history. In response to these needs, we initiated this research project in 1995. Our goal is to examine the relevance of spatial structure and landscapes to the persistence of wild Chinook salmon by describing spatial patterns in extinction and colonization dynamics. Our central hypotheses are: 1) habitat area, quality, or context (in relation to other spawning populations) strongly influences the occurrence of spawning Chinook salmon; and 2) landscape features influence the occurrence of critical spawning habitat and salmon spawning distributions. If true, recolonization and persistence of salmon populations may be strongly influenced by the spatial geometry of remaining habitats. Such information could be critical for development of conservation and restoration strategies. While this research has focused on larger scale spatial questions about persistence, it simultaneously provides annual status and distribution information that has proven useful for intensively monitoring an ESA listed Chinook salmon stock. Our study has two primary objectives: 1) To monitor wild Chinook salmon distribution, abundance, and trend by mapping the annual distribution of Chinook salmon redds across the entire MFSR; and 2) To assess spatial and temporal patterns in extinction and colonization dynamics of wild Chinook salmon. We have two secondary objectives: 3) To describe both individual and population level wild Chinook salmon genetic variation; and 4) To evaluate methods for measuring wild Chinook salmon dispersal and for describing salmon life history patterns. We selected a predominantly wilderness study area, the MFSR which is a National Wild and Scenic River draining about 7,330 km2 of a remote area of central Idaho. For most of its length, the river flows through the Frank Church River of No Return Wilderness. The study area was selected because: 1) Chinook salmon stocks in the basin are wild and indigenous, unaltered by hatchery supplementation. Consequently, the ability of the returning adult salmon to respond to the quality and quantity of available spawning and rearing habitat has not been altered. Wild, indigenous, Chinook salmon populations like those in the MFSR are rare; Thurow et al. (2000) reported their presence in 4% of the potential historical range in the Columbia River basin and portions of the Klamath River basin. 2) Within most of the drainage, habitat quality has not been substantially altered by anthropogenic activities and exotic fishes are uncommon. Widespread degradation of habitat and exotic fishes would be expected to confound a spatial analysis of freshwater habitat. Within the MFSR, minimal anthropogenic effects and a geographic size that facilitates the existence of natural processes such as wildfire, floods, and debris flows ensure continual generation and maintenance of a diversity of stream habitats (Isaak et al. 2003). 3) The large area provides an opportunity for a large sample size. About 800 km of tributaries and the mainstem are accessible to Chinook salmon (Mallet 1974; Thurow 1985). This increases the likelihood of a sample size large enough to complete a robust spatial analysis. 4) Opportunities exist for extensive collaboration with state and federal agencies and tribes who are conducting management and research activities in the drainage; and 5) the principal investigator has nearly 25 years of experience working in this drainage. For the past 15 years, we have annually mapped (via low-level aerial surveys) and georeferenced (with a GPS) the distribution of Chinook salmon redds in about 800 km of stream. Thousands of individual spawning sites are distributed across the censused spawning areas. Salmon spawning distributions have been dynamic in both space and time, particularly as abundance changed. In low escapement years, redds occurred sporadically through much of the network, but in years with larger escapements, spawning has been more widespread, and fish appear in a larger proportion of the stream reaches. By censusing the distribution of a commonly measured demographic parameter (redds) through time, we have generated a data set that has tremendous analytical potential for advancing our understanding of the dynamic nature of Chinook salmon (Isaak and Thurow 2006). We are determining if redds are randomly distributed in space, examining temporal changes in distributions relative to population size, decomposing the variance associated with redd numbers to understand the relative importance of spatial and temporal factors, and describing patterns associated with population expansion or contraction. These data are being used in a host of studies to address key conservation issues for Chinook salmon, including assessment of temporal changes in population synchrony (Isaak et al. 2003), examination of linkages between fine-scale genetic structure, demographic parameters, and environmental characteristics (Neville et al. 2006), evaluation of methods for monitoring salmon populations (Courbois et al. 2008), determination of dispersal ranges and environmental constraints using spatial autocorrelation analysis (Neville et al. 2007), validation of hydrologic models for predicting basin-wide distributions of spawning substrates (Buffington et al. 2004; Lewicki et al. 2007), assessment of environmental covariates that affect habitat occupancy (Isaak et al. 2007), and validation of redd count methodologies (Thurow and McGrath 2010). As we build upon this unique redd dataset, we will continue to expand our analysis of the spatial and temporal variability in Chinook salmon populations as well as continue to collect and archive genetic samples and otoliths from MFSR Chinook salmon carcasses. Genetic samples will ultimately be used to expand our earlier Chinook salmon genetics research (Neville et al. 2006; Neville et al. 2007). Nearly 3,000 otoliths collected between 1997 and 2009 have been archived. We are exploring collaborative opportunities to develop direct measures of dispersal and descriptions of life history patterns through otolith microchemistry. This research addresses at least three critical needs identified in Regional Program documents. 1) the need for long-term information to assess wild salmon populations; 2) the need for evaluation of broad scale population sampling and inventory methods; and 3) the need for analysis of wild salmon spatial structure. Additional years of redd data will enhance our ability to monitor multiple generations of wild salmon. This research represents the first comprehensive survey of spawning areas and redds in a large basin and provides key information on overall spawning escapements and the distribution of fish. Results are being used in recovery planning by State, Federal, and Tribal agencies. Our annual redd estimates also provide a foundation for evaluating the influences of various salmon mitigation and restoration efforts outside the MFSR and may represent a baseline for evaluating the effects of a changing climate on wild Chinook salmon.	Russell Thurow			06/04/2010	07/11/2011	Russell Thurow	US Forest Service (USFS)	Habitat	None	RME / AP Category Review	RM&E Cat. Review - RM&E	BiOp