56065 REL 35: Rev 1: WE C: Work Element Summary

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Basics

Contract Number:

56065 REL 35

Contract Title:

2002-077-00 EXP ESTUARY UNCERTAINTIES

Contract Start Date:

11/1/2021

Contract End Date:

10/31/2022

WE ID:

122. Provide Technical Review and Recommendation

Work Element Usage Report

Title:

C: 122 - Impacts Analysis

Description:

The overall approach to Impacts Analysis involves conceptual modeling, statistical modeling, hydrodynamic modeling using Delft3DFM, ecological modeling, and other analyses to address ERTG uncertainties and determine anthropogenic impacts since the late 1800s. It also determines the portion of impacts attributable to the CRS and other anthropogenic stressors, the interactions of multiple factors, and the fraction still unattributable given existing data and methods. The late 1800s (Pre-Development Era), the 1930s, and the present (Modern Era) are being incorporated into the analysis and modeling work to inform attributions, and future-condition predictions are planned. Estimation of uncertainties in attribution due to systematic and random factors is also an important component of the work. Four primary categories of ERTG uncertainties are addressed by the research: predictive modeling, landscape principles, climate change, and sedimentary processes.

Five tasks are anticipated for FY22 and will be detailed in the Work Plan at the conclusion of the present project period after FY21 reporting is completed: Task 1, Factual baseline and tools for change analysis; Task 2, Water; Task 3, Sediment Budget; Task 4, Temperature; and Task 5, Macrohabitats. Clearly, uncertainties affecting the CEERP involve integrated processes and effects across these tasks, yet this structure is a useful heuristic for managing discrete aspects of the research. Researchers representing each of these tasks will participate in forums in the regional conversation on uncertainties convened by the AAs. As uncertainties are prioritized through the regional process during the course of the year, BPA may direct that more or less effort be given to specific, with commensurate alterations of the level of effort given to other tasks within the proposed cost.

At present, uncertainties identified by the ERTG that are amenable to investigation using the Estuary Uncertainty study’s statistical and modeling framework include: sedimentary processes, sediment placement, and wetland channel morphodynamics; fish movement, habitat connectivity (fish, prey), and organic matter flux/spatial distribution; water temperature (fish habitat quality); outcomes of tide gate design relative to restoration objectives and environmental dynamics; and climate change.

With regard to climate change, ERTG-identified uncertainties in regard to several subtopics can be addressed, pending regional prioritization of the research questions. Because climate change affects most uncertainties, potential topic areas for further investigation in FY22 are presented in a single list that integrates all tasks:
• Floodplain wetland plant species distribution shifts and invasions
• Effects on salt wedge structure and estuarine turbidity maxima
• Movement of sediment lateral to the mainstem Columbia River in the past, present, and future
• Historical, modern, and predicted wetland accretion rates; elucidation of drivers, feedback, and related dynamics
• Frequency and magnitude of hydrological events and their effects on wetland plant communities, primary/secondary productivity, and fish habitat connectivity
• Validation of the stepping stone model assessing the quality and size of habitat patches, and energetics/temperature/cost of fish movement
• Indirect effects of wetlands on the foodweb, i.e. organic matter and prey fluxes
• Consequences of decreased predictability of correlations between ocean indices, basin hydrology, and temperature
• Variable role of wetland plant communities and logs as friction in model floods
• Interactions: topography x reach x hydrological change; habitat area x reach; etc.

In summary, PNNL, PSU, and Cal-Poly are addressing research questions critical to regionally identified uncertainties with the potential to impact CEERP, using statistical, ecological, and physics-based modeling and an innovative study design to produce quantitative analyses with quantification of uncertainty, suitable for use as the basis for adaptive management decision making. The team is examining the role of landscape factors and spatial variation of biophysical processes along the estuarine gradient on water temperatures and primary productivity, which will inform how restoration/conservation considerations for climate change must vary by reach and site.

WE Agreement Type:

Contracted

Deliverable Specification:

Develop input for a high-level synthesis chapter or article (WE141) regarding alterations to biophysical factors and Key Ecological Attributes as caused by diverse impacts on the LCRE.

WSE Effective Budget:

$404,235

% of Total WSE Effective Budget:

67.41%

WSE Start:

11/01/2021

WSE End:

10/31/2022

WSE Completion:

10/31/2022

WSE Progress:

Concluded

WSE ID Continued From:

[Unassigned]

WSE ID Continued To:

[Unassigned]

Finite or Recurring:

Finite

Budget History

SOWRevision	Planned	Updated	Contractor Comments (optional)	BPA Comments (optional)
Work Element Budget (Current Performance Period)	$405,256	$404,235

Milestones

6 Milestones

Sort	Type	Title	Start	End	Status	Modified By	Modified Date
A		Water	11/1/2021	10/31/2022	Concluded	Christine Read	8/3/2021 12:24:45 PM
		Description: High water levels are associated with large river flow events, cause floods, and are a major variable managed by the CRS, but inundation is also an important habitat factor. There is a gradient in factors determining water levels along the length of the LCRE. Ocean tides, storms and coastal processes like upwelling and downwelling dominate water levels in the estuary, while river flow becomes increasingly the dominant factor moving up the tidal river. Long-term decreases in water levels, strongest in the Middle and Upper Tidal River Zones, have been caused by anthropogenic stressors (Jay et al., 2011, 2015, 2016; Templeton and Jay, 2011). Low waters during summer and fall neap tides affect commercial navigation, recreation and wetlands, so water levels are of importance to multiple users. Long-term changes in water level are amongst the best documented of system changes, and can, therefore, be analyzed and modeled. Water level is also a key variable in model calibration and validation.
B		Sediment	11/1/2021	10/31/2022	Concluded	Christine Read	8/3/2021 12:24:45 PM
		Description: Suspended sediment loads have decreased dramatically throughout the Columbia River Basin, primarily in the coarse fraction. The substrate of LCRE wetland habitats, though in part derived from locally variable sources, is subject to the reductions in total suspended load and sand input since construction of the CRS. This is potentially problematic given the projected rise of sea level and projected changes to the hydrograph and operations.
C		Temperature	11/1/2021	10/31/2022	Concluded	Christine Read	8/3/2021 12:24:45 PM
		Description: Temperatures affect organisms within all macrohabitats in the LCRE. For example, altered water temperatures (Tw) affect the rates of biogeochemical processes (e.g., algae blooms), the survivability and distribution of animal populations (notably fish but also other species), and the viability of non-native plants. In turn, the floodplain macrohabitats exert controlling forces on Tw. For example, the forested wetlands dominated by Sitka spruce, "tideland spruce," in which spatial arrays of temperature data were collected, are a unique ecosystem to the Pacific Northwest that has been severely impacted by anthropogenic actions, likely including temperature; prior analysis showed that Tw differed inside and outside such wetlands.
D		Macrohabitats	11/1/2021	10/31/2022	Concluded	Christine Read	8/3/2021 12:24:45 PM
		Description: The impacts of the CRS on physical drivers in the riverscape are connected to biological functions. Estimating long-term morphological change is vital for future system management, given climate change effects such as MSL rise. Improved estimates of sediment input (Task 2) provide a possible basis for future investigation of “alternate histories” – how would LCRE bathymetry and wetland topography have evolved if sediment supply had not been affected by anthropogenic stressors? Water surface elevation is an important determinant, along with diking and land use, in changes in wetland inundation, estimated by sum exceedance values (SEV; Jay et al., 2016; Borde et al. 2012a, b). Wetland inundation, captured as metrics such as SEV, is a primary variable in understanding vegetation distributions and long-term changes in wetland types, including susceptibility to invasive species. Primary productivity is a fundamental measure of the ecosystem and is related to secondary productivity and thereby the salmon food web. Ecological and empirical modeling provide predictive capability for evaluation of future scenarios and identifies and quantifies remaining uncertainty.
E		Factual Baseline & Modeling Tools	11/1/2021	10/31/2022	Concluded	Christine Read	8/12/2021 9:27:11 AM
		Description: Developing Factual Baseline and Tools for Change Analyses: Delft Model (Water, Sediment, Temperature) Importance: Ultimately, to fully address the fundamental questions of this study, numerical modeling of the circulation and sedimentary processes under historical (late 1800s), 1930s-1940s, 1970s, and modern (present) conditions will be required. Models produce outputs that have associated uncertainty, such as uncertainty in the boundary condition data. Quantification of this uncertainty is important for assessment of the confidence in the interpretation and application of model outputs. Expected Outcome: This task will result in better, more comprehensive models fitting within the study analytical framework, particularly of the lateral slices, and an improved understanding of model uncertainty and associated confidence in model outputs. Expectations for research questions in each of the below Task areas 2-5, to be addressed through Delft modeling during the project period, will be detailed in the Work Plan.
F	DELIV	Summary and Synthesis.		10/31/2022	Concluded	Christine Read	8/12/2021 9:27:11 AM
		Description: Develop input for a high-level synthesis chapter or article (WE141) regarding alterations to biophysical factors and Key Ecological Attributes as caused by diverse impacts on the LCRE.

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