76910 REL 6: Rev 1: WE B: Work Element Summary

Work Element Summary PDF

Select a work element:

Basics

Contract Number:

76910 REL 6

Contract Title:

1991-051-00 EXP STATISTICAL SUPPORT LIFE CYCLE STUDIES

Contract Start Date:

1/1/2019

Contract End Date:

12/31/2019

WE ID:

162. Analyze/Interpret Data

Work Element Usage Report

Title:

B: 162 - Provide RealTime predictions

Description:

This task estimates in real time the “percent of run to date” and the “date to specified percentiles” during the spring and summer smolt outmigration periods for 66 salmonid stocks, ESUs, and composite groups. Results are posted daily on the DART website, http://www.cbr.washington.edu/crisprt/. The task ends with an end-of-year evaluation of the accuracy of the run-timing predictions.

WE Agreement Type:

Contracted

Deliverable Specification:

Deliverables for this task include the following:

1. Maintain and improve statistical software for RealTime forecasts.
2. Post in-season migration forecasts on the internet.
3. Produce a post-season evaluation of the accuracy of the run-timing predictions.

WSE Effective Budget:

$93,872

% of Total WSE Effective Budget:

22.16%

WSE Start:

01/01/2019

WSE End:

12/31/2019

WSE Completion:

12/19/2019

WSE Progress:

Concluded

WSE ID Continued From:

n/a

WSE ID Continued To:

n/a

Finite or Recurring:

Recurring

Budget History

SOWRevision	Planned	Updated	Contractor Comments (optional)	BPA Comments (optional)
Work Element Budget (Current Performance Period)	$92,656	$93,872

Milestones

5 Milestones

Sort	Type	Title	Start	End	Status	Modified By	Modified Date
A	PUBPROTOCOL	Review, revise, and publish Study Design and Methods in monitoringmethods.org	1/1/2019	12/31/2019	Concluded	Christine Petersen	9/18/2018 1:22:47 PM
		Description: The Study Design (including temporal and spatial design) and Methods for this work element are stored at monitoringresources.org and need to be finalized (i.e., "Published" through monitoringresources.org), preferably prior to data collection. Preparations for contract renewals must include reviewing any previously published Study Design/Methods to ensure that they are consistent with how work will be done in any subsequent contract.
B		Maintain statistical software for inseason RealTime predictions	1/1/2019	12/31/2019	Concluded	Christine Petersen	9/18/2018 1:22:47 PM
		Description: Predictive software, Program RealTime, will be calibrated, based on the performance from the previous year. Additional stocks will be added to the program as requested by the fisheries community.
C		Perform inseason migration and post on the internet (DART)	4/1/2019	10/18/2019	Concluded	Christine Petersen	9/18/2018 1:25:59 PM
		Description: Daily predictions of migration status of 66 stocks will be posted on the internet (DART) for public access and use. Any agency requests for additional detailed information will be responded to on an "as needed" basis.
D		Produce post-season evaluation of the accuracy of the run-timing predictions	11/1/2019	12/31/2019	Concluded	Christine Petersen	9/18/2018 1:25:59 PM
		Description: Annual report of post-season evaluation of the performance of the run-timing predictions.
E	DELIV	Provide RealTime predictions		12/31/2019	Concluded	Christine Petersen	9/18/2018 1:22:47 PM
		Description: Deliverables for this task include the following: 1. Maintain and improve statistical software for RealTime forecasts. 2. Post in-season migration forecasts on the internet. 3. Produce a post-season evaluation of the accuracy of the run-timing predictions.

Metrics

Implementation Metrics

Metric	Planned	Actual
1464. Primary R, M, and E Focal Strategy [Population Status, Hydrosystem, Tributary Habitat, Estuary/Ocean, Harvest, Hatchery, Predation, Multiple Strategies]	Hydrosystem	Hydrosystem
1472. Primary R, M, and E Type [Status and Trend Monitoring, Action Effectiveness Research, Uncertainties Research, Project Implementation/ Compliance Monitoring]	Status and Trend Monitoring	Status and Trend Monitoring
1478. Secondary R, M, and E Type [Status and Trend Monitoring, Action Effectiveness Research, Uncertainties Research, Project Implementation/ Compliance Monitoring]	Uncertainty Research	Uncertainty Research
1495. Secondary R, M, and E Focal Strategy [Population Status, Hydrosystem, Tributary Habitat, Estuary/Ocean, Harvest, Hatchery, Predation, Multiple Strategies]	Population Status	Population Status

Location

<a target='blank' href='https://www.monitoringresources.org/Designer/Design/Detail/7706'>Location data for Area of Inference (AOI) should be entered into MonitoringResources.org. Click here to go to that site.</a>

Focal Species

Primary Focal Species:

Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) - All Populations; Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) - All Populations; Steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) - All Populations; Coho (O. kisutch) - Unspecified Population; Coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) - Lower Columbia River ESU (Threatened)

Secondary Focal Species:

None

Environmental Compliance

This work element does not require Environmental Compliance

RM&E Metadata

Data Repositories:

Title	Link
DART - Data Access in Real Time	http://www.cbr.washington.edu/dart/

Study Plan:

Study Plan Name	Study Plan Owner	Protocol State	Sample Design Name
Provide Inseason Predictions of Smolt Outmigration Timing through the Snake-Columbia River (1991-051-00) v1.0	Cindy Helfrich	Draft	Provide RealTime predictions - University of Washington v1.0

Methods:

ID	Name	Type	Optional	Customized Based On	Status
684	Estimate the Outmigration Status of Juvenile Salmonid Smolts Using Program RealTime v1.0	Data Analysis/Interpretation	No	N/A	Finalized

Metrics:

Title	Category	Subcategory	Subcategory focus 1	Subcategory focus 2
Daily Record Graph - Percent Daily Passage Predictions with CIs	Other	Not Applicable (ID: 243)	NA	NA
Passage Bar Graph - Predicted Dates to Prepecified Percentiles	Other	Not Applicable (ID: 243)	NA	NA

Area of Inference:

Name	Value
Columbia River Basin	Yes

Please correct the errors noted below.

Implementation Metrics