| B | 19557 | 122 | Provide Technical Review and Recommendation | Conduct ISAB Reviews and Produce Reports and Presentations | Summary: The ISAB will conduct reviews requested by NOAA Fisheries, the Council, and the Columbia River Indian Tribes.
Specific Assignments for Fiscal Year 2007: The ISAB will work on a mix of long, medium, and short-term assignments of varying priority allowing for an efficient use of the ISAB’s expertise and resources. For FY 2007, the ISAB will complete two long-time review requests regarding the potential impacts of climate change and human population growth and development patterns to Columbia River Basin fish and wildlife resources. These reviews were approved and initiated in June 2006.
In addition, the ISAB is on-call for assignments from the Council, Tribes and NOAA Fisheries. These on-call assignments will likely pertain to work products of NOAA’s Technical Recovery Teams, the Council’s provincial objective setting exercise, and mainstem passage analyses and experiments, among others. Ongoing and potential ISAB reviews envisioned for FY07 are described below.
1. Impacts of Climate Change on Fish and Wildlife Restoration
The Council’s 2002 Request
The potential impacts of climate change are recognized at national and international levels. In addition, the impacts of short and longer-term climate variation and ocean conditions are now recognized as major contributors to fluctuations and trends in salmon abundance coast-wide. While a widely recognized phenomenon, the impacts of climate change are rarely incorporated into natural resource planning. The ISAB noted that the Council’s fish and wildlife program and the NOAA Fisheries recovery strategies do not consider the impacts of climate change and implicitly assume a level baseline. However, the changes in regional snow pack and stream flows in the Columbia Basin projected by many climate models could have a profound impact on the success of restoration efforts and the status of Columbia River fish and wildlife populations.
In April 2002, the Council asked the ISAB to review the potential impacts of climate change on the success and direction of the Council’s fish and wildlife program and on fish and wildlife restoration in the Columbia Basin. The Council asked that the ISAB: 1) review projections of climate change and synthesize the current scientific understanding of climate trends in the Pacific Northwest and how these affect biologically important parameters such as marine conditions, stream flow, temperatures, and species ranges, and 2) focus on how these trends could impact the success of restoration efforts and suggest how consideration of these trends might impact the direction of the Council’s program and how the region should incorporate knowledge of climate trends in fish and wildlife planning and management.
The ISAB Approach
The ISAB has partially addressed this review request in its harvest and tributary habitat reports, but the climate change content of those reports was very limited and was not at the level to support specific informed action by the Council. The ISAB outlined a more in-depth review in FY 2006. Short and medium cyclic climate variation (El Nino/La Nina and Pacific Decadal Oscillations) as well as longer trends in climate change are likely to impact the efficacy of choices for restoration and preservation of fish and wildlife habitats under the Council's Fish and Wildlife Program.
The Council requested that the climate change review address two distinct areas of concern: 1) the ocean environment and 2) the freshwater environment. In 2004, the ISAB bifurcated the review to address first the effect of climate variability on the ocean environment. The ISAB incorporated a section on climate and ocean change in its harvest report. This approach allowed the ISAB to explore the relationship between varying ocean regimes, hatchery production, and harvest rates. In addition, the ISAB considered the Council’s question of how climate change may affect the frequency of short-term variation in oceanic conditions such as El Nino events as well as longer term overall marine productivity. Regarding the freshwater component of the review, the ISAB included climate change considerations throughout its tributary habitat report. However, the tributary habitat report did not explicitly address climate change, and the ISAB believes a more complete review is warranted.
Since the Council first requested this review, significant scientific effort has been applied to issues related to the potential impact of climate change in the Pacific Northwest on the freshwater environment including changes to snow pack, stream flow, and species distribution. For example, in September 2004, a regional conference directly relevant to the ISAB assignment was held, “Climate Impacts on Salmon Management and Recovery in the Columbia River Basin.” Consequently, the ISAB is scoping the literature and analyses currently available to the region and receiving briefings from climate experts to determine at what level an ISAB review should be conducted to add value. If necessary, the ISAB will synthesize literature from these recent efforts and focus on describing the potential scale of the impacts of climate change on the success of ongoing restoration efforts and how the uncertainty of impacts could be best incorporated into fish and wildlife planning and management. Thus, the review should be useful in informing future program amendments and recovery planning. The ISAB understands that Council staff from the power and fish and wildlife divisions intends to refine its existing hydrosystem models, with input from climate models of the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, to better incorporate climate impacts on the hydrosystem. The ISAB will coordinate its efforts with those of the Council and might review the Council’s modeling studies.
The ISAB plans to complete the review in the first quarter of 2007. Based on similar past projects, the estimated FY07 cost for completion is $30,000.
2. Potential Impact of Human Development Patterns on Fish and Wildlife Populations
The impact of human settlement in the Columbia River Basin is rarely incorporated into fish and wildlife planning. The Fish and Wildlife Program implicitly assumes a level baseline of human development, and demographic issues are only infrequently addressed in subbasin plans. However, several dimensions of human development patterns are changing. Regional population is increasing, the spatial use of natural resources is changing, and the economic base is shifting. These trends have unevenly distributed impacts throughout the basin with direct implications for fish and wildlife conservation, mitigation and recovery.
In 2002, the Council asked the ISAB to analyze projected trends and patterns in human development in the Columbia River Basin with regard to how they might affect the success and direction of the fish and wildlife program. The Council requested that the ISAB:
· review population patterns and projections for growth;
· discuss how these changes might affect fish and wildlife habitats;
· assess the impacts of changing economic patterns on habitat;
· suggest methods for incorporating human impacts into fish and wildlife planning.
The ISAB is addressing this review in five steps:
1. Synthesize existing information on human development patterns in the Columbia River Basin. This includes information on population growth and density, economic trends, land use patterns and other development variables available through various regional planning entities. Information on these factors exists in various locations, but has not been synthesized from the perspective of fish and wildlife resources.
2. Synthesize available projections of trends in these human development variables.
3. Assess and describe the available data and methods used to project human development outcomes and their potential impact on fish and wildlife.
4. Analyze the potential impacts of projected human development trends on fish and wildlife conservation and recovery. Models for this approach include the alternative futures “scenario development” approach used by the Willamette River Basin Project and the Coastal Landscape Analysis and Modeling Study (CLAMS) Project.
5. Recommend framework approaches for effective incorporation of demographic and economic trends in resource planning and restoration actions.
The ISAB envisions this effort to be of 5-6 months duration, resulting in a concise summary report (20-30pp) outlining the broad issues identified in items 1-5 above. The report will synthesize existing demographic and economic information, discuss why this information is relevant to fish and wildlife in the Columbia River Basin and provide examples of how the information may be effectively incorporated into subbasin planning and project design. In addition, the ISAB intends to identify additional actions and potential strategies (within the purview of the Fish and Wildlife Program) to address the potential impact of changing human development patterns. The ISAB may find it useful to work with an ad hoc member with experience in this area, for example someone from the Willamette Subbasin plan team or the CLAMS project. Based on similar past projects, the estimated FY07 cost for completion is $30,000. The ISAB plans to complete the review in the first quarter of 2007.
3. Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation Reviews
In FY 2007, the ISAB may be asked to continue its role in reviewing regional plans aimed at monitoring and evaluating the status of fish and wildlife populations in the basin and the effectiveness of projects at benefiting those populations. In 2006, the ISAB and ISRP jointly reviewed the Council’s Draft Guidance for Developing Monitoring and Evaluation as a Program Element of the Fish and Wildlife Program (see ISAB&ISRP 2006-4 ). Early in FY07, the ISAB and ISRP may be asked to review revisions to the guidance document.
The ISAB has also agreed to review plans and work products of the Pacific Northwest Aquatic Monitoring Partnership (PNAMP). Federal, state, and tribal fish and wildlife entities formed PNAMP to expand the US Forest Service’s ongoing regional monitoring effort under the Northwest Forest Plan. PNAMP’s coordination covers the Pacific Northwest region from Northern California to Canada where the participating entities are implementing monitoring efforts. The basis of PNAMP is that monitoring will be improved if all programs: use consistent monitoring approaches and protocols; follow a scientific foundation; support monitoring of policy and management objectives; and collect and present information in a manner that can be shared. ISAB reviews of PNAMP products have included evaluation of a 2005 PNAMP proposed study to compare stream habitat monitoring protocols.
ISAB reviews of the Council’s Research Plan, PNAMP products, and potential RME proposals are closely coordinated with the ISRP. Jointly, the ISAB and ISRP intend to compare the plans, products and proposals and identify gaps and areas of consensus, disagreement, and redundancy. This effort could include holding workshops. Joint ISRP and ISAB members will bill to their ISAB contracts.
4. Review of NOAA Fisheries’ Draft ESA Analyses: Technical Recovery Teams Draft Products
NOAA Fisheries may ask the ISAB to review draft products of the Technical Recovery Teams (TRTs) that address Columbia River salmon listings. The TRTs are multi-agency technical workgroups led by NOAA Fisheries. The TRT’s initial task is to determine preliminary biological criteria necessary to ensure the viability of Evolutionarily Significant Units (ESUs) listed under the Endangered Species Act and then to help develop and evaluate various options for meeting these criteria (for general information on recovery planning see www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/trt/index.html).
In FY 2005, the ISAB answered five NOAA Fisheries’ questions about evaluating the viability of Evolutionarily Significant Units that contain hatchery and natural or resident and anadromous populations. In FY 2004, also at NOAA Fisheries’ request, the ISAB reviewed a TRT draft document titled Independent Populations of Chinook, Steelhead, and Sockeye for Listed Evolutionarily Significant Units Within the Interior Columbia River Domain, which was produced by the Interior Columbia River Technical Recovery Team. For FY 2007, NOAA Fisheries is likely to ask the ISAB to review additional Columbia River TRT documents.
5. Mainstem Passage Reviews
Over the decade of service to the region, the ISAB has been continuously engaged in reviews of projects, programs, study designs, and analyses related to fish passage at the mainstem Columbia and Snake River dams. FY 2007 should be no exception with likely ISAB reviews of the delayed mortality hypothesis and updated versions of the COMPASS model. In addition, the Council is considering asking the ISAB to undertake a review of historical mainstem passage improvements, the benefits accrued, and the potential for making additional survival improvements at the dams. Such a review would be intended to assist the Council as it plans for its next Fish and Wildlife Program amendments, which are likely to begin in 2008.
Council Mainstem Amendment - Study Design Review
In April 2003, the Council adopted mainstem amendments to its Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife Program. These amendments included a description of river conditions and tests of dam operations intended to protect fish and wildlife that utilize mainstem rivers as habitat. Since 2004, the Council and the region have discussed study implementation and design issues for tests of fish survival under various dam operation scenarios. If discussions on experiments arise, the ISAB and/or ISRP may be asked to review study designs related to those experiments. If specific proposals are solicited, such as through the Corps’ Anadromous Fish Evaluation Program, the ISRP, rather than the ISAB, will conduct the review.
Council Request for ISAB to Establish a Mainstem Peer Review Group
At its June 14, 2006 meeting, the Council agreed to ask the ISAB to create and oversee a standing Mainstem Peer Review Group. The ISAB’s oversight partners agreed that a joint proposal would be developed from the Council’s proposal and revised to incorporate comments from the Tribes and NOAA.
Although subject to the Tribes’ and NOAA’s input, the Council envisions that this peer review group would be available “on call” and used on a regular basis to review various mainstem related science questions and/or key issues associated with: a) long-term operations and fish passage planning, such as some of the analyses and/or science assumptions in development of a new FCRPS Biological Opinion; b) annual operations planning; c) specific in-season questions and analyses; d) reports evaluating mainstem actions and river conditions after the fact, such as post-season fish survival analyses; e) major research questions and results, including key issues arising out of the mainstem monitoring and research activities under the Council’s program and the Corps’ Anadromous Fish Evaluation Program, and f) other mainstem related issues or questions. That is, this group would be available as needed to review systematically whatever specific scientific/technical questions and issues that may arise from fish passage issues related to mainstem reservoir and dam passage operations.
In the past, the ISAB has addressed many of the questions and issues under the topics listed above. For example, the ISAB has reviewed the statistical design of the Comparative Survival Studies; the various mainstem fish passage models from PATH, CRI, and CRiSP to COMPASS; the effectiveness of 2005 spill operations; and the efficacy of transportation, flow augmentation, removable spillway weirs, and other technologies intended to improve fish passage. This peer review group proposal would streamline the process with which mainstem questions come before the ISAB.
6. Provincial Objectives
In 2004, the ISRP and ISAB jointly reviewed all subbasin plans submitted for the Council’s Fish and Wildlife Program and provided comments on the scientific soundness of the plans and recommendations on how the plans could be more effective. The Council used the joint ISAB and ISRP report to develop an overall strategy to adopt the plans into the Fish and Wildlife Program. By June 2005 the Council had adopted plans covering 58 of the 62 subbasins in the Columbia River Basin. Adoption of the subbasin plans was the third step in wholesale revision of the Fish and Wildlife Program, which began with a complete reorganization of the program’s framework with the adoption of the 2000 Fish and Wildlife Program. Adoption of the Mainstem Amendments in 2003 and subbasin plans in 2004 were the next steps.
The final step for the Council is to develop and adopt quantified biological objectives into the program at the ecological province level. The Council started this effort with the use of the All-H Analyzer tool that allows users to look at salmonid productivity, abundance, and survival and policy goals across the four Hs -- habitat, hydrosystem, harvest, and hatcheries. The joint ISAB and ISRP conducted a review of the All-H Analyzer in 2005 and will likely be asked to review some outputs of this or other analytical tools as part of the provincial objectives development process. Currently, the Council is coordinating its objective setting effort with NOAA’s Columbia River Hatchery Reform Project.
7. Review of Council Fish and Wildlife Program Elements
One of the ISAB’s primary tasks is to “evaluate the Council’s Fish and Wildlife Program on its scientific merits in time to inform amendments to the fish and wildlife program and before the Council requests recommendations from the region.” The Council will likely begin another round of program amendments in 2008. Much progress and change has occurred since the 2000 Fish and Wildlife Program was adopted including: the completion of subbasin plans; the development of the Mainstem Amendments; and the regional discussion and partnership on research, monitoring and evaluation. The Council might ask the ISAB to evaluate some elements of the program and seek advice on how to incorporate knowledge gained from the program development efforts (i.e., subbasin planning) and study of emerging issues (e.g., ocean regimes, climate change, human development patterns, etc.). Many of the ISAB assignments described above will be informative to the Council’s effort. Specific areas of additional Council interest include supplementation and habitat restoration strategies (e.g., instream structures). The ISRP and ISAB have also identified the issue of non-native fish stocking and the Fish and Wildlife Program’s substitution policy as a potential topic that would benefit from an ISAB review. | $288,000 | 89.41% | 10/01/2006 | 09/30/2007 |
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