46273 REL 119: Rev 1: WE A: Work Element Summary

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Basics

Contract Number:

46273 REL 119

Contract Title:

2003-017-00 EXP ISEMP - NOAA FISHERIES COORDINATION - PROJ DESIGN

Contract Start Date:

7/1/2016

Contract End Date:

6/30/2017

WE ID:

162. Analyze/Interpret Data

Work Element Usage Report

Title:

A: 162 - ISEMP - Individual Based Life Cycle Model for restoration scenarios in John Day River basin

Description:

Assist data and GIS analysts in interpretation and statistical analysis of data. NOAA technical staff with specific GIS, Data Management and Statistical expertise will collaborate to develop novel data analysis products resulting from ISEMP data collection to date.

As designed, ISEMP data collection in the Wenatchee, Entiat, John Day and Salmon River basins represents a novel opportunity for the rigorous evaluation of salmonid habitat and population data to address resource management questions. Several key analyses are now possible, due to the ISEMP data set generated to date, and the recent advances in multivariate and spatial statistics. As an outcome of this work element, the annual analysis workplan for ISEMP and CHaMP is updated and integrated with regional analysis product needs.

This work element involves data analysis done to build and parameterize life cycle models in the John Day River basins that integrate tributary habitat quality and quantity data into fish population process metrics such as capacity, survival and movement.

WE Agreement Type:

Contracted

Deliverable Specification:

The following technical data analysis products will be developed and reported on as a deliverable for this WE:

Individual based Life Cycle Model scenarios for ISEMP watersheds in the John Day River basin that reflect the population level impact of restoration scenarios.

ISEMP is working to develop an individual based population life cycle model to support the management of steelhead in the John Day River basin. The life cycle model is based on the best available data on juvenile rearing and movement in the John Day River basin, as well as adult behavior such as spawning location and timing. Habitat conditions are incorporated into the life cycle model through their effects on juvenile rearing capacity and survival, juvenile movement, adult pre-spawn mortality and spawning location choice and quality. In addition, the model will include the impacts of restoration practices that encourage or mimic the behavior and effects of beaver on stream conditions. These restoration methods have been pioneered in the John Day River basin (Bridge Creek), and this modeling framework is the best way to estimate their potential benefits on a broader scale for planning and project development purposes.

The final product (not expected in this contract period) will be a management decision making support tool that can be used by resource managers (ODFW, CTWSR, USBOR, USFS) in the John Day, as well as regional planners (NOAA, BPA) to develop and test restoration and management scenarios.

WSE Effective Budget:

$12,000

% of Total WSE Effective Budget:

6.83%

WSE Start:

07/01/2016

WSE End:

06/30/2017

WSE Completion:

06/30/2017

WSE Progress:

Concluded

WSE ID Continued From:

n/a

WSE ID Continued To:

n/a

Finite or Recurring:

Recurring

Budget History

SOWRevision	Planned	Updated	Contractor Comments (optional)	BPA Comments (optional)
Work Element Budget (Current Performance Period)	$7,705	$12,000

Milestones

3 Milestones

Sort	Type	Title	Start	End	Status	Modified By	Modified Date
A		Individual based model scenarios of restoration actions	7/1/2016	6/30/2017	Concluded	Chris Jordan	4/29/2016 1:52:17 PM
		Description: Apply the ISEMP developed Individual Based Model (IBM) tool - HexSim-Networks to examples of anadromous salmonid populations to demonstrate the ability of IBMs to support watershed-scale restoration planning scenario development. ISEMP is working to develop an individual based population life cycle model to support the management of steelhead in the John Day River basin. The life cycle model is based on the best available data on juvenile rearing and movement in the John Day River basin, as well as adult behavior such as spawning location and timing. Habitat conditions are incorporated into the life cycle model through their effects on juvenile rearing capacity and survival, juvenile movement, adult pre-spawn mortality and spawning location choice and quality. In addition, the model will include the impacts of restoration practices that encourage or mimic the behavior and effects of beaver on stream conditions. These restoration methods have been pioneered in the John Day River basin (Bridge Creek), and this modeling framework is the best way to estimate their potential benefits on a broader scale for planning and project development purposes. The final product (not expected in this contract period) will be a management decision making support tool that can be used by resource managers (ODFW, CTWSR, USBOR, USFS) in the John Day, as well as regional planners (NOAA, BPA) to develop and test restoration and management scenarios.
B	PUBPROTOCOL	Review, revise, and Publish protocol, study design, and methods in monitoringmethods.org	7/1/2016	12/31/2016	Concluded	Chris Jordan	3/17/2016 11:29:45 AM
		Description: The Protocol (including temporal and spatial design) and Methods for this work element are stored at monitoringmethods.org and need to be finalized (i.e., "Published" through monitoringmethods.org), preferably prior to data collection. Preparations for contract renewals must include reviewing any previously published Protocols/Methods to ensure that they are consistent with how work will be done in any subsequent contract.
C	DELIV	ISEMP Individual Based Life Cycle Model Restoration Scenarios		6/30/2017	Concluded	Chris Jordan	4/29/2016 1:51:30 PM
		Description: The following technical data analysis products will be developed and reported on as a deliverable for this WE: Individual based Life Cycle Model scenarios for ISEMP watersheds in the John Day River basin that reflect the population level impact of restoration scenarios. ISEMP is working to develop an individual based population life cycle model to support the management of steelhead in the John Day River basin. The life cycle model is based on the best available data on juvenile rearing and movement in the John Day River basin, as well as adult behavior such as spawning location and timing. Habitat conditions are incorporated into the life cycle model through their effects on juvenile rearing capacity and survival, juvenile movement, adult pre-spawn mortality and spawning location choice and quality. In addition, the model will include the impacts of restoration practices that encourage or mimic the behavior and effects of beaver on stream conditions. These restoration methods have been pioneered in the John Day River basin (Bridge Creek), and this modeling framework is the best way to estimate their potential benefits on a broader scale for planning and project development purposes. The final product (not expected in this contract period) will be a management decision making support tool that can be used by resource managers (ODFW, CTWSR, USBOR, USFS) in the John Day, as well as regional planners (NOAA, BPA) to develop and test restoration and management scenarios.

Metrics

Implementation Metrics

Metric	Planned	Actual
1464. Primary R, M, and E Focal Strategy [Population Status, Hydrosystem, Tributary Habitat, Estuary/Ocean, Harvest, Hatchery, Predation, Multiple Strategies]	Tributary Habitat	Tributary Habitat
1472. Primary R, M, and E Type [Status and Trend Monitoring, Action Effectiveness Research, Uncertainties Research, Project Implementation/ Compliance Monitoring]	Status and Trend Monitoring	Status and Trend Monitoring
1478. Secondary R, M, and E Type [Status and Trend Monitoring, Action Effectiveness Research, Uncertainties Research, Project Implementation/ Compliance Monitoring]	Action Effectiveness Monitoring	Action Effectiveness Monitoring
1495. Secondary R, M, and E Focal Strategy [Population Status, Hydrosystem, Tributary Habitat, Estuary/Ocean, Harvest, Hatchery, Predation, Multiple Strategies]	Population Status	Population Status

Location

<a target='blank' href='https://www.monitoringresources.org/Designer/Design/Detail/2841'>Location data for Area of Inference (AOI) should be entered into MonitoringResources.org. Click here to go to that site.</a>

Focal Species

Primary Focal Species:

Steelhead (O. mykiss) - Middle Columbia River DPS (Threatened)

Secondary Focal Species:

None

Environmental Compliance

This work element does not require Environmental Compliance

RM&E Metadata

Data Repositories:

Title	Link
CHaMPmonitoring.org	http://champmonitoring.org/
ISEMP - Integrated Status and Effectiveness Monitoring Program	http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/cbd/mathbio/isemp/index.cfm
NOAA Status, Trend, and Effectiveness Monitoring (STEM) Databank	https://www.webapps.nwfsc.noaa.gov/stem/
PTAGIS Website	http://www.ptagis.org/

Study Plan:

Study Plan Name	Study Plan Owner	Protocol State	Sample Design Name
ISEMP Data Analyst Protocol v1.0 v1.0	Carol Volk	Draft	Develop models of learning and information flow - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration v1.0

Methods:

ID	Name	Type	Optional	Customized Based On	Status
485	Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) Model v1.0	Data Analysis/Interpretation	No	N/A	Finalized
958	Estimate Life-Cycle Survival and Transportation Effects for Non-residualizing Chinook Using PIT-Tag Detections v1.0	Data Analysis/Interpretation	No	N/A	Draft
14	Fish Community - Data Analysis v1.0	Data Analysis/Interpretation	No	N/A	Finalized
785	Fish survival using mark-recapture v1.0	Data Analysis/Interpretation	No	N/A	Archived
1403	ISEMP Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis v1.0	Data Analysis/Interpretation	No	N/A	Draft
164	Laboratory Methods for Benthic Macroinvertebrate Data v1.0	Data Collection	No	N/A	Finalized
137	Mark-Recapture Estimates from Snorkeling Data v1.0	Data Analysis/Interpretation	No	N/A	Finalized
637	Model Selection using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). v1.0	Data Analysis/Interpretation	No	N/A	Finalized
621	Robust Tag Release-Recapture v1.0	Data Analysis/Interpretation	No	N/A	Draft
633	Sample Size Estimation v1.0	Data Analysis/Interpretation	No	N/A	Draft

Metrics:

Title	Category	Subcategory	Subcategory focus 1	Subcategory focus 2
Abundance of Fish Analysis	Fish	Abundance of Fish (ID: 46)	Fish Life Stage: RANGE: Juvenile to Adult	Fish Origin: Both
Salmonid Juvenile and Adult Productivity Analysis	Fish	Productivity: Fish (ID: 163)	Fish Life Stage: RANGE: Adult to Juvenile	Fish Origin: Both

Area of Inference:

Name	Value
Columbia River Basin	Yes
NPPC Subbasins	ENTIAT
NPPC Subbasins	JOHN DAY
HUC4 - Sub Basin	LEMHI
HUC4 - Sub Basin	SOUTH FORK SALMON
NPPC Subbasins	WENATCHEE

Please correct the errors noted below.

Implementation Metrics