77902: Rev 1: WE C: Work Element Summary

Work Element Summary PDF

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Basics

Contract Number:

77902

Contract Title:

1998-014-00 EXP OCEAN SURVIVAL OF SALMONIDS (OHSU)

Contract Start Date:

1/1/2018

Contract End Date:

12/31/2018

WE ID:

162. Analyze/Interpret Data

Work Element Usage Report

Title:

C: 162 - Characterize spatial and temporal physical features of the plume

Description:

This is a continuation of a multi-year, multi-institutional study to evaluate the role of changing ocean conditions on growth and survival of juvenile salmon from the Columbia River basin as they enter the Columbia River plume and PNW coastal habitats. Adult returns vary dramatically (over 10 fold) as a result of changing (good or bad) ocean conditions juveniles experience. Evaluating the benefit of restoration efforts in the Columbia River to restore endangered salmon populations needs to consider ocean conditions as a contributing factor to recovery.

OHSU will continue to simulate physical estuarine and plume conditions, and make them available for integration in the plume project cruises and multiple fisheries analyses that require them. This includes both continuing to conduct and analyze underlying circulation simulations (Task 5.1) and filtering the results to derive the estuarine (Task 2.3) and plume metrics (Task 5.3).

WE Agreement Type:

Contracted

Deliverable Specification:

The Products that will be delivered are the following:

-- Plume Metrics in the Climatological Atlas

Specific deadlines include:

--- Update of database of plume metrics completed

WSE Effective Budget:

$43,500

% of Total WSE Effective Budget:

90.63%

WSE Start:

01/01/2018

WSE End:

12/31/2018

WSE Completion:

12/31/2018

WSE Progress:

Concluded

WSE ID Continued From:

n/a

WSE ID Continued To:

n/a

Finite or Recurring:

Recurring

Budget History

SOWRevision	Planned	Updated	Contractor Comments (optional)	BPA Comments (optional)
Work Element Budget (Current Performance Period)	$43,500	$43,500

Milestones

6 Milestones

Sort	Type	Title	Start	End	Status	Modified By	Modified Date
A	PUBPROTOCOL	Review, revise, and Publish protocol, study design, and methods in monitoringmethods.org	1/1/2018	4/30/2018	Concluded	Anne Creason	10/17/2017 3:03:29 PM
		Description: The Protocol (including temporal and spatial design) and Methods for this work element are stored at monitoringmethods.org and need to be finalized (i.e., "Published" through monitoringmethods.org), preferably prior to data collection. Preparations for contract renewals must include reviewing any previously published Protocols/Methods to ensure that they are consistent with how work will be done in any subsequent contract.
B		Linking hydrographic conditions with 3-dimensional salmon tracking in the CR estuary	1/1/2018	12/31/2018	Concluded	Anne Creason	11/16/2017 3:12:12 PM
		Description: Task 2.3. Linking hydrographic conditions with 3-dimensional salmon tracking in the Columbia River estuary For this task, the NOAA-led team has concurrently measured the 3-dimensional migration pattern of juvenile salmonids relative to the hydrography of the CRE. We hypothesized that the vertical position and location of salmonids is altered when high salinity and low DO are present in the estuary. Specifically, we predict that salmon will hold or move upstream in response to encountering intruding seawater and shoal when encountering low DO. During ebb tides, when water is fresher and normoxic, we expect continued migration and deeper depth distribution. In FY18, OHSU will contribute to this task through the analysis of the underlying estuarine circulation dynamics, based on existing and on-going circulation simulations. Specifically, OHSU will ensure that metrics characterizing estuarine salinity intrusion and plume characteristics will continue to be computed and are thus available for integration in these analyses as required. OHSU will also begin development of an Individual-based Model (IBM) coupled with the circulation model, to attempt to more closely understand salmon pathways throughout the estuary and early plume.
C		Physical Circulation	1/1/2018	12/31/2018	Concluded	Anne Creason	11/16/2017 3:14:03 PM
		Description: Task 5.1. Physical Circulation. The SATURN circulation modeling system, also known as the virtual Columbia River (http://www.stccmop.org/datamart/virtualcolumbiariver), has constituted important infrastructure for the project. Simulations of water levels, salinity, temperature and velocities have supported salmon analyses directly and (as needed) provide underlying flows for use in ecological transport models. In FY18: • OHSU will continue to improve the skill of our circulation simulations, and will maintain daily circulation forecasts of circulation to inform NOAA fisheries cruises. • OHSU will on demand run daily forecasts of turbidity and light attenuation.
D		Characterizing ocean entry conditions and their implications on adult returns	1/1/2018	12/31/2018	Concluded	Anne Creason	11/16/2017 3:14:03 PM
		Description: Task 5.6. Characterizing Ocean Entry Conditions and their Implications on Adult Returns. Physical, chemical and biological conditions experienced by salmon at ocean entry play a significant but incompletely understood role in overall survival. To clarify and quantify that role, we have been conducting multiple analyses based on metrics derived from circulation databases. The region associated with “ocean entry” encompasses the coastal jet off the WA coast, the plume (defined by waters of salinity of 28psu or lower) regardless of direction, plume fronts, and the estuary downstream of the salinity intrusion length limit. In FY18: • OHSU will concentrate on the update of the time series of plume (volume, area and location) and estuarine (salinity intrusion, salt volume, shallow water habitat) metrics, so that other project participants can conduct analysis based on those metrics.
E		Engage, advise and inform managers	1/1/2018	12/31/2018	Concluded	Anne Creason	11/16/2017 3:14:03 PM
		Description: Task 6.2. Engage, advise and inform managers. This task is critically important as a synthesis of the work conducted to date. OHSU anticipate continuing—when appropriate—to engage BPA managers to better understand their needs, so that solutions might be explored in eventual future projects. An example of that engagement has been the contribution of OHSU, through separate funding, to the U.S. Entity Regional Recommendation for the Future of the Columbia River Treaty after 2024, to the U.S. Department of State.
F	DELIV	Analysis of spatial and temporal features of the plume		12/31/2018	Concluded	Anne Creason	10/17/2017 3:03:29 PM
		Description: The Products that will be delivered are the following: -- Plume Metrics in the Climatological Atlas Specific deadlines include: --- Update of database of plume metrics completed

Metrics

Implementation Metrics

Metric	Planned	Actual
1464. Primary R, M, and E Focal Strategy [Population Status, Hydrosystem, Tributary Habitat, Estuary/Ocean, Harvest, Hatchery, Predation, Multiple Strategies]	Multiple Strategies	Multiple Strategies
1472. Primary R, M, and E Type [Status and Trend Monitoring, Action Effectiveness Research, Uncertainties Research, Project Implementation/ Compliance Monitoring]	Uncertainty Research	Uncertainty Research
1478. Secondary R, M, and E Type [Status and Trend Monitoring, Action Effectiveness Research, Uncertainties Research, Project Implementation/ Compliance Monitoring]	Status and Trend Monitoring	Status and Trend Monitoring
1495. Secondary R, M, and E Focal Strategy [Population Status, Hydrosystem, Tributary Habitat, Estuary/Ocean, Harvest, Hatchery, Predation, Multiple Strategies]	Estuary/Ocean	Estuary/Ocean

Location

<a target='blank' href='https://www.monitoringresources.org/Designer/Design/Detail/6138'>Location data for Area of Inference (AOI) should be entered into MonitoringResources.org. Click here to go to that site.</a>

Focal Species

Primary Focal Species:

Chinook (O. tshawytscha) - Deschutes River Summer/Fall ESU; Coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) - Lower Columbia River ESU (Threatened); Steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) - All Populations

Secondary Focal Species:

None

Environmental Compliance

This work element does not require Environmental Compliance

RM&E Metadata

Data Repositories:

Title	Link
SATURN - CMOP Science and Technology University Research Network	http://www.stccmop.org/saturn

Study Plan:

Study Plan Name	Study Plan Owner	Protocol State	Sample Design Name
Forecasts and Advice on Impact of Ocean and Plume Conditions (1998-014-00) v1.0	Cheryl Morgan	Draft	Characterize spatial and temporal physical features of the plume - Oregon Health Sciences University (OHSU) v1.0

Methods:

ID	Name	Type	Optional	Customized Based On	Status
1748	Calculation of plume volumes to characterize ocean entry conditions v1.0	Data Analysis/Interpretation	No	N/A	Draft

Metrics:

Title	Category	Subcategory	Subcategory focus 1	Subcategory focus 2
Plume volume	Hydrology/Water Quantity	Ocean Conditions (ID: 106)	NA	NA

Area of Inference:

Name	Value
Latitude, Longitude	46.212081, -124.080566
Lower Columbia Estuary (LCREP)	Coastal Lowlands Entrance-Mixing

Please correct the errors noted below.

Implementation Metrics