CBFish website will be offline for about 1 hour starting at 5:00 PM today for regular maintenance. Thank you for your patience.
Mitigation work
Reporting
Funding
Search
Log in
Notice:
CBFish website will be offline for about 1 hour starting at 5:00 PM today for regular maintenance. Thank you for your patience. 
Follow this via RSS feed. Help setting up RSS feeds?
Please Note: This project is the product of one or more merges and/or splits from other projects. Historical data automatically included here are limited to the current project and previous generation (the “parent” projects) only. The Project Relationships section details the nature of the relationships between this project and the previous generation. To learn about the complete ancestry of this project, please review the Project Relationships section on the Project Summary page of each parent project.
This page provides a read-only view of a Proposal. The sections below are organized to help review teams quickly and accurately review a proposal and therefore may not be in the same order as the proposal information is entered.
This Proposal Summary page updates dynamically to always display the latest data from the associated project and contracts. This means changes, like updating the Project Lead or other contacts, will be immediately reflected here.
To view a point-in-time PDF snapshot of this page, select one of the Download links in the Proposal History section. These PDFs are created automatically by important events like submitting
your proposal or responding to the ISRP. You can also create one at any time by using the PDF button, located next to the Expand All and Collapse All buttons.
| Archive | Date | Time | Type | From | To | By |
| 11/14/2018 | 11:54 AM | Status | Draft | <System> | ||
| Download | 2/6/2019 | 2:29 PM | Status | Draft | ISRP - Pending First Review | <System> |
| 4/19/2019 | 9:34 AM | Status | ISRP - Pending First Review | ISRP - Pending Final Review | <System> | |
| 5/28/2019 | 3:58 PM | Status | ISRP - Pending Final Review | Pending BPA Response | <System> | |
| 5/30/2019 | 2:47 PM | Status | Pending BPA Response | Pending Council Recommendation | <System> |
|
Proposal Number:
|
NPCC19-1991-029-00 | |
|
Proposal Status:
|
Pending Council Recommendation | |
|
Proposal Version:
|
Proposal Version 2 | |
|
Review:
|
2019-2021 Mainstem/Program Support | |
|
Portfolio:
|
2019-2021 Mainstem/Program Support | |
|
Type:
|
Existing Project: 1991-029-00 | |
|
Primary Contact:
|
Kenneth Tiffan (Inactive) | |
|
Created:
|
11/14/2018 by (Not yet saved) | |
|
Proponent Organizations:
|
US Geological Survey (USGS) |
|
|
|
||
|
Project Title:
|
Snake River fall Chinook salmon research and monitoring | |
|
Proposal Short Description:
|
Project 199102900 will collaboratively collect, disseminate, and analyze data to provide real-time information to update status and trend monitoring and assist in the development of data-supported models that inform adaptive management and recovery of Snake River fall Chinook salmon. | |
|
Proposal Executive Summary:
|
Project 199102900 began in 1991 to provide some of the first biological data on the contemporary population of fall Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in the Snake River basin that was eventually listed in 1992 under the Endangered Species Act (ESA; NMFS 1992) as the Snake River fall Chinook salmon evolutionary significant unit (ESU). As knowledge was obtained and more complicated issues emerged, the project was divided into three projects: (1) 199102900 focused on behavior, migration timing, and survival of natural-origin and hatchery-origin subyearlings and most of the fish studied were collected in riverine habitat, (2) 199801003 focused on spawning and adult behavior, and (3) 200203200 focused on behavior and survival of natural-origin and hatchery-origin juveniles collected in lower Snake River reservoirs that were destined to enter the ocean as yearlings. In agreement with BPA, we have reincorporated projects 199801003 and 200203200 under project 199102900 as part of the present categorical review to streamline project administration and increase the efficiency of data processing. Adding the budgets of the three projects brings the annual budget of 199102900 to $1,193,574. In 2018, sponsorship of the project was transferred to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), which elected not to continue with the project. The project will continue to complement and be coordinated with existing Snake River fall Chinook salmon ESU projects including staff of Idaho Power Company (IPC), the Nez Perce Tribe Department of Fisheries Resources Management (NPT), National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), University of Idaho (UOI), and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW). We will summarize historical data and collect new data to make progress towards addressing two objectives: (1) inform recovery actions taken to increase the abundance, productivity, and spawning distribution of natural-origin adults, and (2) inform recovery actions taken to increase the abundance and diversity of natural-origin subyearlings during early freshwater rearing and migration. Toward that end, the project will continue to monitor the juvenile and adult populations, analyze and summarize data to provide new insights into factors affecting population productivity, and make progress toward completing a life-cycle model that can be used for recovery planning and evaluation. The proposed project tasks are well-aligned with the Snake River fall Chinook salmon recovery plan and the current biological opinion. | |
|
|
||
|
Purpose:
|
Programmatic | |
|
Emphasis:
|
RM and E | |
|
Species Benefit:
|
Anadromous: 100.0% Resident: 0.0% Wildlife: 0.0% | |
|
Supports 2009 NPCC Program:
|
Yes | |
|
Subbasin Plan:
|
Lower Snake, Snake Hells Canyon | |
|
Biological Opinions:
|
||
|
Contacts:
|
|
Adult Status and Trend Monitoring
* = journal article published by past and present key personnel.
The literature suggests that the historical populations of Snake River basin fall Chinook salmon were abundant, diverse, productive, and spatially distributed (Fulton 1968). These measures of status declined from the late 19th century to 1992. The Interior Columbia Basin Technical Recovery Team (ICRT) reviewed available information on historical distributions and concluded that there were likely three relatively discrete populations of Snake River fall Chinook salmon. These included one population each centered on the Swan Falls reach, the middle Snake River (a.k.a., the Marsing reach), and the lower Snake River and its major tributaries downstream of the middle Snake River (Figure 1; ICTRT 2003).
The construction of Swan Falls Dam eliminated production in the Swans Falls reach in 1910. The abundance of adults that returned to the middle Snake River was first measured with some certainty by counting fish at Brownlee (1957) and Oxbow dams (1958–1964; Haas 1965; Craig 1965). The adult counts declined from over 17,103 to 504. Redd counts upstream of the dams declined from 3,794 to 222. In 1961, an experimental incubation facility was constructed near the power house of Oxbow Dam and 30% of the adults trapped at the dam were retained for hatchery brood stock (Culpin 1963). Spawning in the middle Snake River was eliminated in 1964 when all of the adults trapped at Oxbow Dam were retained for hatchery brood stock and all of the hatchery-reared juveniles were released downstream of the dam (Craig 1965). The hatchery program was plagued with disease outbreaks and mortality. It was disbanded by the early 1970s.
The population centered downstream of the middle Snake River likely spawned in portions of the lower Snake River downstream of the Boise River mouth as well as lower portions of the Imnaha, Grande Ronde, Salmon, Selway, Clearwater, Palouse, and Tucannon rivers (e.g., Schoning 1947; Figure 1). Abundance of the adults returning to these spawning areas was first measured by counting adults passing Ice Harbor Dam in 1964. Adult counts at Ice Harbor Dam declined from a high in 1968 of 24,374 to a low of 1,475 in 1976 when management efforts refocused on establishing a hatchery stock of Snake River fall Chinook salmon. Adults were trapped at dams such as Ice Harbor Dam, the offspring were reared at existing hatcheries, and the juveniles were largely released into the Snake River at various locations (Bugert et al. 1995). Lyons Ferry Hatchery was completed and reared its first brood in 1984. The Lyons Ferry program involved the release of subyearling and yearling smolts made on station and most of the returning adults that escaped to the Snake River returned to the hatchery where they were collected as broodstock.
Lower Granite Dam was completed in 1975. The average number of adults counted at Lower Granite Dam during 1975–1992 was 1,489 (Figure 2). Redd surveys made in the 1970s focused on the lower Snake River because few if any redds were counted in other areas when search effort was expended in these areas. Mark data was first used in 1983 to reconstruct the adult run that arrived at Lower Granite Dam into natural-origin and hatchery-origin fish (Figure 2). We define natural-origin fish as any fish that was produced by spawning in the wild regardless of parental origin. For example, a hatchery-origin female that made a redd and spawned with a hatchery-origin male would produce natural offspring. The hatchery-origin fish identified by run reconstruction were a combination of out-of-basin strays, Lyons Ferry Hatchery strays, and returns from hatchery releases made into the Snake River when developing Lyons Ferry Hatchery stock (Marshall et al. 2000*). The contemporary major spawning areas upstream of Lower Granite Dam included lower Snake, Clearwater, and Grande Ronde rivers according to redd surveys made during 1986–1992. However, the inter-annual average number of redds counted were low (Snake River = 50; Clearwater River = 13; Grande Ronde River = 1).
Our research group increased redd surveying effort after 1992 (Garcia and Groves 1998*; Groves and Chandler 1999; Table 1). Counts upstream of Lower Granite Reservoir increased from 219 in 1993 to a high of 9,346 in 2015. We fit a series of models and then estimated a redd capacity of 2,570 for the lower Snake River under a stable flow regime adopted for Hells Canyon Dam (Figure 1) during spawning to prevent redd dewatering (Connor et al. 2001a*). We then worked with staff of the U of I and used field and laboratory methods to implicitly relate emergence success to substrate composition measured at fall Chinook salmon spawning sites in the Snake River. Estimated that emergence success ranged from 29 to 48% (Bennett et al. 2003*). Redd capacity estimates and spawning habitat quality analyses provided similar results for the Clearwater River (Arnsberg et al. 1992). We concluded that spawning habitat availability and quality should not of itself limit recovery, which is supported by recent work of Groves et al. (2013*) that found the total redd capacity in the Snake River to be 4,442 redds. This exceeds the number of redds that could be produced by 2,500 natural-origin spawners—the recovery goal specified by the ICRT (2003).
The release of hatchery-origin fall Chinook salmon subyearlings and yearlings (of, or derived from, Lyons Ferry Hatchery stock) into the free-flowing lower Snake, Clearwater and tributaries, and Grande Ronde rivers to supplement production that began in 1996 had large potential to influence adult status and trends. We refer to project 199801004 reports written by NPT for more details on supplementation (Table 2). Notably, millions of hatchery-origin fish are released annually for supplementation and a large portion (e.g., 20% or more) have been and will continue to be unmarked. This lead to enhanced efforts after 1998 to reconstruct the adult run at Lower Granite Dam that are presently led by NPT (Table 1). Counts of both natural-origin and hatchery-origin adults increased after ESA listing (Figure 2).
This portion of the problem statement has briefly suggested adults from the historical populations of Snake River basin fall Chinook salmon were abundant, diverse, productive, and spatially distributed and that these measures of status declined from the late 19th century to 1992. Adult abundance has increased since ESA listing in 1992 to the point where density dependent mechanisms appear to be in effect (Figure 3). A stock-recruitment analysis that tests the influence of anthropogenic, biological, and environmental change on trends in adult counts (i.e., without use of run reconstruction) and the spatial distribution of redd counts observed since the middle of the 20th century has been started by this project. We suggest that such an analysis would provide a useful historical perspective as well as being useful for evaluating recovery scenarios proposed by NOAA Fisheries.
The ICRT (2003) recommended a minimum viability threshold of a geometric mean of 3,000 natural-origin adults over 10 years for the Snake River fall Chinook salmon ESU. Run reconstruction indicates that 3,000 or more natural-origin adults have arrived at Lower Granite Dam in almost every year since 2001 (Figure 2). A stock-recruitment analysis that tests the influence of anthropogenic, biological, and environmental change on the abundance of natural-origin adults observed after 1983 when reconstruction began would (1) help to understand why the abundance of natural-origin adults increased and (2) provide the ability to make predictions under “what if ?” scenarios for adaptive management. We describe such an analysis in this proposal.
The ICRT (2003) also recommended explicit population level spatial structure criteria including the escapement of at least 2,500 natural-origin spawners to the lower Snake River. Spawning by natural-origin adults in the Clearwater and Grande Ronde rivers is also important under these criteria. Though run reconstruction provides an estimate of the abundance of natural-origin adults at Lower Granite Dam to assess status relative to the minimum viability threshold, it does not provide the information on spatial distribution of natural-origin spawners needed to assess status relative to the explicit population level spatial structure criteria. A model with clearly stated assumptions that relates redd counts made since we intensified search effort and coverage in 1993 to the explicit population level spatial structure criteria would be useful. This proposal describes one approach for developing such a model.
One of the delisting criteria for Snake River fall Chinook salmon is the establishment of two separate populations. Spatially, this is not possible with this population. As an alternative, in 2018 the section of the Snake River above Pittsburg Landing (rkm 345) to Hells Canyon Dam (rkm 398) was designated a “natural production area” (NPA) to provide a river reach that would be a stronghold for natural-origin fish. All hatchery supplementation above Pittsburg Landing was moved to the Salmon River beginning in 2018. Currently, about 70% of naturally spawning fish are of hatchery-origin, but this percentage ideally should be around 10-15%. It is hoped that the percentage of natural-origin spawners in the NPA will increase over time. One way to monitor the effectiveness of the NPA is to collect genetic samples from a sample of spawners to determine their origin through parentage-based tagging (PBT). This effort was begun by this project and IPC in 2017 and will continue into the future. Methods are still in development regarding the best tissue to collect and whether adequate results can be obtained from degraded tissue from dead fish. A second monitoring need of the NPA is counting redds in this area. The switch to using UAS to count redds in the Snake River means that only a subsample of known spawning sites is surveyed each year and counts are then expanded to the entire river. We believe that a complete census in the NPA is both necessary and possible by expanding UAS efforts by this project and IPC.
Juvenile Status and Trend Monitoring
Though research was not conducted to document the historical status of the juvenile populations, it is quite likely these populations reflected the abundance, diversity, productivity, and spatial distribution of the adults. Spawning was spatially distributed across habitats with a wide range of temperatures and levels of growth opportunity that would have fostered variation in emergence timing, growth, and timing of seaward migration. Moreover, the rivers leading to the sea were free-flowing with natural temperature regimes and the juveniles and predators had evolved sympatrically.
Loss of the Swan Falls reach eliminated some of the most productive rearing habitat. After the loss of the Swan Falls reach, Krcma and Raleigh (1970) used a “migrant dipper” trap to capture offspring of adult fall Chinook salmon that spawned along the middle Snake River prior to 1964. Fry emergence was complete by the middle of April. Approximately 98% of the juvenile population had grown to become subyearling parr and had started downstream dispersal from natal rearing areas by the end of May. Graban (1964) and Haas (1965) described the historical attempts to pass juvenile migrants at Brownlee and Oxbow dams (Figure 1). The juvenile fish bypass facility was considered a failure and the inability to successfully pass fish at these two dams was the primary reason attempts to maintain production in the middle Snake River were discontinued and the juvenile production in this reach of river was lost. Mains and Smith (1964) collected subsamples of subyearlings in between the present locations of Lower Granite and Little Goose dams that likely included offspring of fall Chinook salmon that spawned throughout the Snake River basin. Passage of subyearlings was complete by the end of June well before flow descended to base levels. This stretch of river was completely impounded with the construction of Little Goose and Lower Granite dams in 1970 and 1975, respectively.
We began using beach seines to collect natural-origin subyearlings along in the lower Snake and Clearwater rivers in the early 1990s to study early life history timing and growth (Table 2). Natural-origin subyearlings 60-mm and longer were implanted with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags (Prentice et al. 1990a). Connor et al. (2000*) and Burge and Connor (2003*) found that the fry emerged later and grew to become parr more slowly and later than observed by Krcma and Raleigh (1970) in the middle Snake River. We also found that the subyearling migrants passed between Lower Granite and Little Goose dams a month or more later than reported by Mains and Smith (1964). We concluded that dams in the Swan Falls reach and the middle Snake River had eliminated highly productive rearing habitat leaving juvenile production to habitat with relatively lower growth opportunity. Further, dam construction in the lower Snake River had delayed seaward migration and young fall Chinook salmon were present in reservoirs during the warmest periods of the year when flows in the reservoir were at their lowest.
Summer flow augmentation is one action that has been implemented to mitigate delayed seaward migration and the associated reduction in survival of subyearling migrants. Summer flow involves releasing relatively cool water from Dworshak Reservoir and relatively warm water in smaller volumes from reservoirs upstream of Hells Canyon Dam (Figure 1) and it decreases temperature and increases flow in Lower Granite Reservoir (Connor et al. 2003a*). Through analyses of PIT tagging data (Table 2) and radio tag data we have concluded that summer flow augmentation has a slight effect on migration rate of subyearlings (Connor et al. 2003b*; Smith et al. 2003*; Tiffan et al. 2009a*) and has a large effect on survival and growth (Connor et al. 2003a*; Smith et al. 2003*; Tiffan et al. 2009b*). More recently, evidence was provided that showed cold water released from Dworshak Reservoir may contribute to a yearling life history in Clearwater River fish by disrupting normal physiological development (Tiffan et al. 2018*).
The previously described release of millions of hatchery juveniles upstream of Lower Granite Dam is another implemented action we have helped to evaluate with PIT-tag data (Table 2). The potential for interaction between natural-origin and hatchery-origin subyearlings likely decreases as the size of the hatchery-origin fish released increases (Connor et al. 2004*). Hatchery-origin subyearlings released at sizes similar to natural-origin subyearlings (e.g., 70–75 mm fork length) disperse slowly downstream and they can interact while growing, feeding, and passing dams. Hatchery-origin subyearlings released at average fork lengths of 90–95 mm actively migrate, spend little time feeding and growing, and pass dams earlier than natural-origin subyearlings. Prior to release into riverine habitat, some hatchery-origin juveniles are acclimated for a period of three to six weeks at acclimation facilities (Figure 1) to allow the juveniles to recover from trucking and to increase homing. Acclimated hatchery-origin subyearlings pass downstream faster and pass dams earlier than hatchery-origin subyearlings that were trucked and released directly to the river, thus acclimation reduces the potential for interaction with natural-origin subyearlings (Rosenberger et al. 2013*).
In the last several years, we have observed an increase in densities of natural-origin subyearlings in the lower Snake River that might suggest a response to implemented actions such as summer flow augmentation and hatchery supplementation. For example, in the Snake River during 1992–1999 the inter-annual mean CPUE was 5 ± 1 SE natural-origin juveniles per seine haul compared to an inter-annual mean of 31 ± 6 juveniles per seine haul for the years 2000–2011 (Connor et al. 2013*). In association with increases in rearing densities of natural-origin subyearlings and the number of hatchery-origin subyearlings released, we found that the amount of time the PIT-tagged natural-origin subyearlings spent in transit to Lower Granite Dam had decreased, passage timing of the PIT-tagged population at Lower Granite Dam had become earlier, the size of the fish at the time of dam passage had become smaller, and growth rates during downstream passage had decreased (Connor and Tiffan 2012*; Connor et al. 2013*).
This portion of the problem statement has briefly suggested juveniles from the historical populations of Snake River basin fall Chinook salmon were abundant, diverse, and spatially distributed and that these measures of status declined from the late 19th century to 1992. It has also summarized how we have used PIT tags to understand the response of subyearlings to actions implemented including summer flow augmentation and hatchery supplementation. Though the unique and individually based information collected with PIT tags has been and will be useful for research and management, PIT-tag data do not fully represent the natural population. To address this, project staff have begun evaluating using 8-mm PIT tags to represent a larger portion of the juvenile population through tagging. Results have shown that growth, survival, and detectability are not compromised by tagging fish as small as 42 mm with 8-mm PIT tags (Tiffan et al. 2015*; Rhodes and Tiffan 2018*; Tiffan et al. in review). We propose to continue this evaluation in this proposal, the results of which should benefit all projects in the basin that PIT tag small salmonids. To compliment PIT-tag data and analyses and move the state of knowledge forward, estimates of passage abundance for the population of natural-origin subyearlings at Lower Granite Dam are needed. This can be done by reconstructing the juvenile run. Reconstructing the run of subyearlings provides: (1) estimates of passage abundance of natural-origin subyearlings at Lower Granite Dam during the spring, summer, and fall, (2) the opportunity to increase understanding of the anthropogenic, biological, and environmental factors that influence trends in passage abundance, and (3) the opportunity to increase the understanding of how varying influential anthropogenic, biological, and environmental factors might increase passage abundance. We have made good progress developing Bayesian models to estimate daily numbers of natural-origin subyearlings passing Lower Granite Dam, and we will continue to refine them moving forward. However, one of the difficulties lies in validating abundance estimates. One approach for doing this is to determine the origin of fish passing the dam using PBT. We will be conducting a pilot study of this in 2019 and, pending favorable results, will likely continue this at some level moving forward.
The explanation for the apparent density-dependent population response shown in Figure 3 remains to be known. Although, it is not likely that the capacity of the spawning habitat is a large factor for the density dependent population response being observed (Groves et al. 2013*), we have observed large-scale redd superimposition at some spawning areas that could explain this. It is unknown how redd superimposition affects the survival of embryos in earlier-constructed redds, and this remains an important research question. The use of unmanned aerial systems (UAS; aka “drones”) to conduct aerial redd surveys (Groves et al. 2016*) has opened the door for quantitatively defining the amount of superimposition that occurs at high-use sites. Project staff began using UAS to count redds in 2017. The use of UAS provides video imagery that can be spatially analyzed in GIS; this was not possible with manned helicopter flights because no video records were collected. The Beverton-Holt curve (Beverton and Holt 1957) in Figure 3 might also suggest that competition for food and space during early freshwater rearing and seaward as an explanation of the decline in recruits as spawner abundance has increased. This theory could be tested with the juvenile run reconstruction and modeling approach described above and underscores the importance of obtaining a better understanding of the food resources and habitats that support subyearlings during rearing and emigration. The Ricker curve (Ricker 1954) in Figure 3 might suggest overcompensation. Our past predation research has shed light on the possible role predators might play in density dependence and should be useful in life-cycle modeling. Compared to studies conducted when subyearling abundance was low, we found that smallmouth bass consumption rate of subyearlings in Lower Granite Reservoir increased dramatically in recent years in response to increases in subyearling density, but bass abundance did not. Accordingly, loss of subyearlings increased 15-fold in recent years (Erhardt et al. 2018*). Within riverine habitats of Hells Canyon, smallmouth bass consumption of natural-origin subyearlings is relatively low but the sheer numbers of bass in the canyon can result in very high predation losses (Erhardt et al. 2015*; Erhardt and Tiffan 2018*). However, predation losses of natural-origin fish can be offset when bass switch to other prey such as hatchery subyearlings and sand rollers (Erhardt and Tiffan 2018*; Hemingway et al. in press*).
Life Cycle and Passage Modeling
A number of life-cycle and passage models have been fitted to data collected on spring Chinook salmon and steelhead to help understand trends in abundance and productivity (e.g., Karieva et al. 2000; Zabel et al. 2006, 2008; Scheuerell et al. 2006; ICRT 2007; ICTRT & Zabel., 2007). A major initiative under the AMIP will involve building on these models to develop improved tools for informing the evaluation of recovery efforts and the adaptive development of future actions. Though some progress has been made in the past (e.g., Williams et al. 2008), a life-cycle and passage model has yet to be fully developed from data collected on the Snake River fall Chinook salmon ESU. However, our project team has made significant advancements in developing a two-stage state-space life-cycle model for Snake River fall Chinook salmon (Perry et al., 2017). One of the major challenges in developing this life-cycle model is improving the juvenile and adult abundance estimates used to fit the life-cycle model. In particular, the absence of valid passage abundance estimates for naturally produced juvenile fall Chinook salmon has been a major hurdle to overcome during development of the life-cycle model. Major challenges with estimating juvenile abundance include: 1) inability to distinguish naturally produced juveniles from unmarked hatchery-origin juveniles in the sample tank, 2) substantial daily variation in bypass passage probabilities owing to dam operations (Plumb et al. 2012*), and missing passage data during the period of the winter period when extended length bar screens are not deployed. To overcome this hurdle, we developed a Bayesian mark-recapture model that estimates daily arrival, survival, and bypass probabilities. This model is used along with daily sample tank data and PIT-tag and marking data from hatchery release groups to estimate the daily expected number of unmarked hatchery juveniles passing the dam and the daily number of naturally produced juveniles passing the dam. Estimates from this model are used to fit a passage distribution among multiple years to estimate winter passage and the associated uncertainty in winter passage. Although run-reconstruction models have been developed to estimate escapement of naturally produced fall Chinook salmon, these models do not provide an adequate estimate of uncertainty. Since a major goal of the state-space life-cycle model is to partition measurement error from process error, we plan to work with the run-reconstruction team to develop appropriate estimates of uncertainty that can then be used to inform the life-cycle model.
|
Inform recovery actions taken to increase the abundance, productivity, and spawning distribution of natural-origin adults (OBJ-1)
The success criteria for objective 1 will be: (1) an increased understanding of the anthropogenic, biological, and environmental factors that influenced historical and contemporary trends in adult abundance, (2) an increased understanding of how varying influential anthropogenic, biological, and environmental factors might facilitate meeting the minimum viability threshold for the Snake River population, (3) documentation of the status of escapement of natural-origin adults to the spawning areas relative to the explicit population-level spatial structure criteria, and (4) completed life-cycle and passage models that can be used to evaluate recovery.
|
Inform recovery actions taken to increase the abundance and diversity of natural subyearlings during early freshwater rearing and migration (OBJ-2)
The success criteria for objective 2 will be: (1) estimates of passage abundance for natural-origin fall Chinook salmon subyearlings at Lower Granite Dam during the spring, summer, fall, and winter, (2) an increased understanding of the anthropogenic, biological, and environmental factors that influence trends in passage abundance, (3) an increased understanding of how varying influential anthropogenic, biological, and environmental factors might increase passage abundance of natural-origin fall Chinook salmon subyearlings, and (4) completed life-cycle and passage models that can be used to evaluate recovery.
|
To view all expenditures for all fiscal years, click "Project Exp. by FY"
To see more detailed project budget information, please visit the "Project Budget" page
| Cost Share Partner | Total Proposed Contribution | Total Confirmed Contribution |
|---|---|---|
| There are no project cost share contributions to show. | ||
| Fiscal Year | Total Contributions | % of Budget | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $227,000 | 12% | ||
| 2023 | $227,000 | 12% | ||
| 2022 | $227,000 | 12% | ||
| 2021 | $217,000 | 12% | ||
| 2020 | $207,000 | 13% | ||
| 2019 | $167,000 | 11% | ||
| 2018 | $194,000 | 26% | ||
| 2017 | $194,000 | 25% | ||
| 2016 | $242,000 | 29% | ||
| 2015 | $396,250 | 40% | ||
| 2014 | $233,200 | 28% | ||
| 2013 | $288,000 | 35% | ||
| 2012 | $208,000 | 28% | ||
| 2011 | $1,200,000 | 69% | ||
| 2010 | $1,215,000 | 71% | ||
| 2009 | $1,215,000 | 73% | ||
| 2008 | $1,565,000 | 77% | ||
| 2007 | $45,000 | 9% |
| Annual Progress Reports | |
|---|---|
| Expected (since FY2004): | 54 |
| Completed: | 44 |
| On time: | 34 |
| Status Reports | |
|---|---|
| Completed: | 168 |
| On time: | 109 |
| Avg Days Late: | 0 |
| Count of Contract Deliverables | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earliest Contract | Subsequent Contracts | Title | Contractor | Earliest Start | Latest End | Latest Status | Accepted Reports | Complete | Green | Yellow | Red | Total | % Green and Complete | Canceled |
| 4700 | 20366, 25263, 29840, 35778, 40522, 45097 | 199801003 EXP BIOP SPAWNING DISTRIBUTION OF SNAKE RIVER FALL CHIN | US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) | 05/01/2001 | 11/30/2010 | Closed | 23 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 46 | 91.30% | 1 |
| Project Totals | 183 | 433 | 41 | 0 | 42 | 516 | 91.86% | 15 | ||||||
| Count of Contract Deliverables | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earliest Contract | Subsequent Contracts | Title | Contractor | Earliest Start | Latest End | Latest Status | Accepted Reports | Complete | Green | Yellow | Red | Total | % Green and Complete | Canceled |
| 5362 | 18033, 22926, 27447, 33149, 37852, 42842, 47760, 53309, 56969, 61380, 65395, 69274, 72898, 75986, 79371, 81781, 84776, 87285, 90045, 92095, 94498, 96586 | 1991-029-00 EXP SNAKE R FALL CHINOOK RESEARCH & MONITORING | US Geological Survey (USGS) | 08/01/1996 | 03/31/2026 | Pending | 79 | 245 | 38 | 0 | 30 | 313 | 90.42% | 10 |
| 5233 | 27429, 32819, 37853, 42841, 47759, 53310, 56968, 61379, 65396, 69273, 72899, 75987 | 1991-029-00 EXP USFWS EMERGING ISSUE/MEASURE S RIV FALL CHIN ESU | US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) | 06/06/2001 | 05/31/2018 | Closed | 52 | 120 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 130 | 94.62% | 2 |
| 26951 | 199102900 EXP EFFECTS OF SUMMER FLOW AUG ON JUV SNAKE R FALL CHIN | Lotek Wireless, Inc. | 04/15/2006 | 06/30/2006 | Closed | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 32856 | 37899, 42600, 47127, 53169 | 1991-029-00 EXP BIOP UI EMERGING ISSUE/MEASURE SR FALL CHIN ESU | University of Idaho | 06/01/2007 | 08/31/2012 | Closed | 21 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 95.00% | 1 |
| BPA-9696 | PIT Tags - Measure SR Fall Chinook ESU | Bonneville Power Administration | 10/01/2016 | 09/30/2017 | Active | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 74314 REL 43 | 1991-029-00 EXP WDFW EMERGING ISSUE/MEASURE SNAKE R FALL CHIN ESU | Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) | 09/01/2018 | 08/31/2019 | Closed | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 100.00% | 0 | |
| BPA-10798 | PIT Tag Readers - Measure SR Fall Chinook ESU | Bonneville Power Administration | 10/01/2018 | 09/30/2019 | Active | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 81900 | 1991-029-00 EXP BIOMARK SNAKE R. FALL CHIN RESEARCH & MONITORING | Biomark, LLC. | 04/01/2019 | 03/31/2020 | Closed | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 100.00% | 1 | |
| BPA-12273 | FY21 Pit Tags | Bonneville Power Administration | 10/01/2020 | 09/30/2021 | Active | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| BPA-12909 | FY22 PIT tags | Bonneville Power Administration | 10/01/2021 | 09/30/2022 | Active | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Project Totals | 183 | 433 | 41 | 0 | 42 | 516 | 91.86% | 15 | ||||||
| Contract | WE Ref | Contracted Deliverable Title | Due | Completed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33149 | C: 162 | Analyze morphological data | 5/15/2008 | 5/15/2008 |
| 37852 | G: 183 | Published journal article | 3/27/2009 | 3/27/2009 |
| 47759 | L: 160 | Database containing all redds counted in the Snake River basin above Lower Granite Dam | 2/28/2011 | 2/28/2011 |
| 53310 | F: 162 | Analyses on factors affecting rearing survival | 9/18/2011 | 9/18/2011 |
| 53310 | H: 162 | Analyses on surrogate performance | 12/14/2011 | 12/14/2011 |
| 53309 | D: 157 | Collect food consumption data | 5/30/2012 | 5/30/2012 |
| 53309 | F: 157 | Collect stomachs | 5/30/2012 | 5/30/2012 |
| 53309 | G: 162 | Estimate growth | 5/30/2012 | 5/30/2012 |
| 53309 | H: 162 | Estimate food consumption | 5/30/2012 | 5/30/2012 |
| 53309 | I: 162 | Estimate food availability | 5/30/2012 | 5/30/2012 |
| 61379 | J: 162 | Retrospective on adult abundance and distribution | 5/29/2014 | 5/29/2014 |
| 61379 | L: 162 | Compare methods for estimating juvenile collection probability | 5/29/2014 | 5/29/2014 |
| 65395 | G: 162 | Fall Chinook salmon loss to predation | 3/5/2015 | 3/5/2015 |
| 69274 | D: 157 | Smallmouth bass diet data | 5/27/2016 | 5/27/2016 |
| 69274 | B: 157 | Collect smallmouth bass for abundance estimation | 5/27/2016 | 5/27/2016 |
| 69274 | G: 162 | Preliminary winter passage estimation methods | 5/27/2016 | 5/27/2016 |
| 72898 | C: 162 | Analyze smallmouth bass diets | 3/15/2017 | 3/15/2017 |
| 72898 | D: 162 | Hatchery adjustment factor | 3/15/2017 | 3/15/2017 |
| 75987 | E: 162 | Analyze/Interpret the 1992-2017 beach seining and PIT-tag data | 9/30/2017 | 9/30/2017 |
| 75987 | G: 161 | Summarize the 1991-2017 redd count data | 5/29/2018 | 5/29/2018 |
| 75987 | I: 161 | AMIP and management briefings | 5/29/2018 | 5/29/2018 |
| 75987 | C: 158 | PIT tag wild fall Chinook salmon subyearlings | 5/29/2018 | 5/29/2018 |
| 75986 | D: 157 | Redd counts | 5/29/2018 | 5/29/2018 |
| 75987 | B: 157 | Beach seine wild fall Chinook salmon subyearlings | 5/29/2018 | 5/29/2018 |
| 75986 | C: 162 | Preliminary juvenile run reconstruction methods | 5/29/2018 | 5/29/2018 |
View full Project Summary report (lists all Contracted Deliverables and Quantitative Metrics)
This section includes work conducted under projects 199102900 but also that of 200203200, which has been merged with project 199102900. We have completed all our annual reports, but the dates given later in this proposal might not match the dates given below because sometimes we worked on reports within a year but combined two years into one report.
When this project was started, little information on Snake River fall Chinook salmon. The project was originally structured to compare and contrast the Snake River and Hanford Reach populations. We present accomplishments obtained on both populations from work conducted by this project.
Our staff have authored or coauthored 55 peer-reviewed journal articles and several more are in preparation (see attached bibliography in Pisces).
1991: Conducted aerial surveys of the planned and implemented pilot beach seining and PIT tagging five days per week from May to July in the lower 50 kms of the Snake River from May to July. Proofed and uploaded data to the PIT-tag Information System (PTAGIS) for public access. Provided an in-season briefing to the FPAC to describe the first existing detection data at Lower Granite Dam. Planned to build on existing redd survey efforts and techniques. Initiated a marking program at McNary Dam to relate juvenile fall Chinook emigration conditions to subsequent adult returns.
1992: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Tested SCUBA for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air. Proofed the survey data. Collected habitat data at one spawning site. Proofed the habitat data and provided it to IPC for use during re-licensing by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Presented and published the PIT-tag data at an American Fisheries Society (AFS) Symposium. Expanded beach seining to 3-4 days a week covering 79 km of river from April to July. Implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon and collected genetic samples. Proofed and uploaded data to the PTAGIS for public access. Provided an in-season briefing to the FPAC on passage timing at Lower Granite Dam to help implement summer flow augmentation. Beach seined subyearlings in the Hanford Reach from March through June and collected habitat data there and in Hells Canyon. Conducted a second year of marking at McNary Dam and collected physiological data on subyearlings throughout the emigration. Prepared the FY90 annual report to BPA.
1993: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used SCUBA and underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Proofed the survey data. Collected habitat data at seven spawning sites. Proofed the habitat data and provided it to IPC for use during FERC re-licensing. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples (Table 3). Proofed and uploaded data to the PTAGIS for public access. Provided an in-season briefing to the FPAC on passage timing at Lower Granite Dam to help implement summer flow augmentation. Presented PIT-tag study results at an AFS meeting. Beach seined subyearlings in the Hanford Reach from March through June and collected habitat data there and in Hells Canyon. Conducted a third year of marking at McNary Dam and collected physiological data on subyearlings throughout the emigration. Prepared the FY91 annual report to BPA.
1994: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Proofed the survey data. Collected habitat data at two spawning sites. Proofed the habitat data and provided it to IPC for use during FERC re-licensing. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Proofed and uploaded data to the PTAGIS for public access. Provided an in-season briefing to the FPAC on passage timing at Lower Granite Dam to help implement summer flow augmentation. Contributed data and text to the proposed recovery plan for Snake River fall Chinook salmon. Presented data on quantifying fall Chinook salmon habitat at an AFS meeting. Beach seined subyearlings in the Hanford Reach from March through June and collected habitat data. Conducted a fourth year of marking at McNary Dam and collected physiological data on subyearlings throughout the emigration. Prepared the FY92 annual report to BPA.
1995: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River from April to July. Proofed the survey data. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples (Table 3). Proofed and uploaded data to the PTAGIS for public access. Provided an in-season briefing to the FPAC on passage timing at Lower Granite Dam to help implement summer flow augmentation. Presented PIT-tag data and analyses at an AFS meeting. Beach seined subyearlings in the Hanford Reach from March through June and collected habitat data. Released radio-tagged subyearlings in the Snake River to study migration behavior in relation to flow and water velocity. Prepared the FY93 annual report to BPA.
1996: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Proofed the survey data. Prepared the FY94 annual report to BPA. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Proofed and uploaded data to the PTAGIS for public access. Provided an in-season briefing to the FPAC on passage timing at Lower Granite Dam to help implement summer flow augmentation. Presented PIT-tag data and analyses at a PSFMC workshop. Initiate a study of smallmouth bass predation on subyearlings in Hells Canyon. Beach seined subyearlings in the Hanford Reach from March through June and collected habitat data. Released radio-tagged subyearlings in the Snake River to study migration behavior in relation to flow and water velocity. Prepared the FY94 annual report to BPA.
1997: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Proofed the survey data. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Proofed and uploaded data to the PTAGIS for public access. PIT-tagged and released 35,000 hatchery fall Chinook salmon to evaluate supplementation. Proofed and uploaded data to the PTAGIS for public access. Provided an in-season briefing to the FPAC on passage timing at Lower Granite Dam to help implement summer flow augmentation. Complete a study of smallmouth bass predation on subyearlings in Hells Canyon. Beach seined subyearlings in the Hanford Reach from March through June and collected habitat data. Released radio-tagged subyearlings in the Snake River to study migration behavior in relation to flow and water velocity. Prepared the FY95 annual report to BPA.
1998: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Proofed the survey data. Prepared the FY96 annual report to BPA. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Proofed and uploaded data to the PTAGIS for public access. PIT-tagged and released 35,000 hatchery fall Chinook salmon to evaluate supplementation. Proofed and uploaded data to the PTAGIS for public access. Provided an in-season briefing to the FPAC on passage timing at Lower Granite Dam to help implement summer flow augmentation. Presented the data collected on hatchery fish at a symposium on hatchery supplementation. Beach seined subyearlings in the Hanford Reach from March through June and collected habitat data. Released subyearlings fitted with temperature-sensing radio tags in Little Goose Reservoir to study temperature exposure during emigration. Collected LIDAR data in the middle 17 miles of the Hanford Reach for a large-scale analysis of flow-related habitat changes. Prepared the FY96 annual report to BPA. Published Connor et al. (1998) and Groves and Garcia (1998).
1999: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Proofed and uploaded data to the PTAGIS for public access. Provided the data collected on the 70,000 PIT-tagged hatchery fish to the PATH work group for analyses. Provided an in-season briefing to the FPAC on passage timing at Lower Granite Dam to help implement summer flow augmentation. Presented the data collected on hatchery fish at a symposium on hatchery supplementation. Made two presentations on the PIT-tag data at AFS meetings. Beach seined subyearlings in the Hanford Reach from March through June and collected habitat data. Released subyearlings fitted with temperature-sensing radio tags in Little Goose Reservoir to study temperature exposure during emigration. Prepared the FY97 annual report to BPA. Published Dauble et al. (1999).
2000: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Provided an in-season briefing to the FPAC on passage timing at Lower Granite Dam to help implement summer flow augmentation. We also contributed data an analysis for the Snake River fall Chinook salmon component of the PATH process and wrote the fall Chinook sections of Appendix M and Annex D of the Fish and Wildlife Coordination Act report. Beach seine and PIT tag subyearlings in the Hanford Reach to estimate their survival to McNary Dam. Prepared the FY98 annual report to BPA. Published Connor et al. (2000), Marshall et al. (2000), Tiffan et al (2000), and Venditti et al. (2000).
2001: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Proofed and uploaded data to the PTAGIS for public access. Beach seine and PIT tag subyearlings in the Hanford Reach to estimate their survival to McNary Dam. Provided an in-season briefing to the FPAC on passage timing at Lower Granite Dam to help implement summer flow augmentation. Briefed the Independent Scientific Advisory Board (ISAB) on summer flow augmentation. Prepared the FY99 annual report to BPA. Published Connor et al. (2001a,b,c) and Tiffan et al. (2001).
2002: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Proofed and uploaded data to the PTAGIS for public access. Released 100 radio-tagged subyearlings in Hells Canyon to relate travel time to water velocity. Provided an in-season briefing to the FPAC on passage timing at Lower Granite Dam to help implement summer flow augmentation. Briefed the NPCC on summer flow augmentation. Project 200203200 started this year. Released radio-tagged subyearlings in Lower Granite Reservoir in the fall to investigate winter passage past lower Snake River dams when bypass facilities are not operated. This behavior was confirmed for the first time. Prepared the FY00 annual report to BPA. Published Connor et. al (2002), Garland et al. (2002), and Tiffan et al. (2002).
2003: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Released 100 radio-tagged subyearlings in Hells Canyon to relate travel time to water velocity. Proofed and uploaded data to the PTAGIS for public access. Provided an in-season briefing to the FPAC on passage timing at Lower Granite Dam to help implement summer flow augmentation. Released radio-tagged subyearlings in Lower Granite Reservoir in the fall to investigate winter passage past lower Snake River dams when bypass facilities are not operated. This behavior was confirmed. Prepared the FY01 annual report to BPA. Published Bennett et al. (2003), Connor et al. (2003a,b,c), Connor and Burge (2003), Smith et al. (2003), Rasmussen et al. (2003), and Tiffan et al. (2003).
2004: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Proofed and uploaded data to the PTAGIS for public access. Released 50 subyearlings tagged with temperature-sensing transmitters to determine temperature selection at the confluence of the Snake and Clearwater rivers during summer flow augmentation. Presented two briefings to the NPCC and the ISAB on fall Chinook salmon life history and survival. Provided three briefings on life history and survival to the USACE and an interagency team developing a large-scale study on transportation and spill. Released radio-tagged subyearlings in Lower Granite Reservoir in the fall to investigate winter passage past lower Snake River dams when bypass facilities are not operated. This behavior was confirmed. Prepared the FY02 annual report to BPA. Published Connor et al. (2004) and Garcia et al. (2004).
2005: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Uploaded the PIT-tag data to the central database for public access. Released 100 radio-tagged subyearlings in Hells Canyon to relate travel time to water velocity. Provided an in-season briefing to the FPAC on passage timing at Lower Granite Dam to help implement summer flow augmentation. Participated on an interagency-tribal team to design a study to assess the effect of transportation and spill on smolt-to-adult return rates for fall Chinook salmon. Provided an in-season briefing to the FPAC on passage timing at Lower Granite Dam to help implement summer flow augmentation. Presented a briefing to the NPCC and the ISAB on fall Chinook salmon life history. Released radio-tagged subyearlings in Lower Granite Reservoir in the fall to investigate winter passage past lower Snake River dams when bypass facilities are not operated. This behavior was confirmed. Prepared the FY03 annual report to BPA. Published Connor et al. (2005).
2006: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Uploaded the PIT-tag data to the central database for public access. Participated on an interagency-tribal team to design a study to assess the effect of transportation and spill on smolt-to-adult return rates for fall Chinook salmon. Presented a briefing to the NPCC on fall Chinook salmon life history. Participated and provided data to the TRT fall Chinook salmon life-cycle model. Released radio-tagged subyearlings in Lower Granite Reservoir in the fall to investigate winter passage past lower Snake River dams when bypass facilities are not operated. This behavior was confirmed. Prepared the FY04 annual report to BPA. Published Connor and Garcia (2006), Haskell et al. (2006a,b), and Tiffan et al. (2006).
2007: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Uploaded the PIT-tag data to the central database for public access. Participated on an interagency-tribal team to design a study to assess the effect of transportation and spill on smolt-to-adult return rates for fall Chinook salmon. Participated and provided data to the TRT fall Chinook salmon life-cycle model. Radio and acoustic tag and release subyearlings in the Clearwater River to describe migratory behavior and estimate survival. Presented a briefing to the NPCC on fall Chinook salmon life history. Prepared the FY05 annual report to BPA.
2008: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Uploaded the PIT-tag data to the central database for public access. Participated on an interagency-tribal team to design a study to assess the effect of transportation and spill on smolt-to-adult return rates for fall Chinook salmon. Presented a paper at an AFS meeting on hatchery supplementation and a briefing to the Lower Snake River Compensation plan on fall Chinook salmon life history. Radio and acoustic tag and release subyearlings in the Clearwater River to describe migratory behavior and estimate survival. Use hydroacoustics to estimate abundance of “holdover” fall Chinook salmon in Lower Granite Reservoir. Published Williams et al. (2008). Prepared the FY06 annual report to BPA.
2009: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Uploaded the PIT-tag data to the central database for public access. Participated on an interagency-tribal team to design a study to assess the effect of transportation and spill on smolt-to-adult return rates for fall Chinook salmon. PIT tag subyearlings in Lower Granite Reservoir and collect diet and growth data. Radio and acoustic tag and release subyearlings in the Clearwater River to describe migratory behavior and estimate survival. Use hydroacoustics to estimate abundance of “holdover” fall Chinook salmon in Lower Granite Reservoir. Published Tiffan et al. (2009a,b). Prepared the FY07 annual report to BPA.
2010: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Uploaded the PIT-tag data to the central database for public access. Participated on an interagency-tribal team to design a study to assess the effect of transportation and spill on smolt-to-adult return rates for fall Chinook salmon including two presentations at a work shop. PIT tag subyearlings in Lower Granite Reservoir and collect diet and growth data. Radio and acoustic tag and release subyearlings in the Clearwater River to describe migratory behavior and estimate survival. Use hydroacoustics to estimate abundance of “holdover” fall Chinook salmon in Lower Granite Reservoir. Prepared the FY08 annual report to BPA.
2011: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Uploaded the PIT-tag data to the central database for public access. Participated on an interagency-tribal team to design a study to assess the effect of transportation and spill on smolt-to-adult return rates for fall Chinook salmon. PIT tag subyearlings in Lower Granite Reservoir and collect diet and growth data. Collect physiology and gene expression data to better understand life history variation in subyearlings rearing in the Clearwater River. Conduct a lab experiment examining subyearling response to sudden exposure to elevated TDG. Collect Siberian prawns and mysids in Lower Granite and Little Goose Reservoirs. Published Tiffan and Connor (2011). Prepared the FY09 annual report to BPA.
2012: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Uploaded the PIT-tag data to the central database for public access. Participated on an interagency-tribal team to design a study to assess the effect of transportation and spill on smolt-to-adult return rates for fall Chinook salmon. Collect physiology and gene expression data to better understand life history variation in subyearlings rearing in the Clearwater River. Conduct a lab experiment examining subyearling response to sudden exposure to elevated temperature and smallmouth bass predation. Begin predation studies in both Hells Canyon and Lower Granite Reservoir. Collect Siberian prawns and mysids in Lower Granite and Little Goose Reservoirs. Begin exploring the efficacy of using otoliths to determine early life history events. Published Tiffan et al. (2012), Connor and Tiffan (2012), and Plumb et al. (2012). Prepared the FY10 annual report to BPA.
2013: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Uploaded the PIT-tag data to the central database for public access. Participated on an interagency-tribal team to design a study to assess the effect of transportation and spill on smolt-to-adult return rates for fall Chinook salmon. Collect data on smallmouth bass predation on subyearlings in both Hells Canyon and Lower Granite Reservoir. Collect Siberian prawns and mysids in Lower Granite and Little Goose Reservoirs. Collect and use otoliths to determine early life history events and life history variation in Snake River fall Chinook. Published Rosenberger et al. (2013), Connor et al. (2013), Groves et al. (2013), and Haskell et al. (2013). Prepared the FY11 annual report to BPA.
2014: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Uploaded the PIT-tag data to the central database for public access. Collect data on smallmouth bass predation on subyearlings in both Hells Canyon and Lower Granite Reservoir. Collect and use otoliths to determine early life history events and life history variation in Snake River fall Chinook. Published Tiffan et al. (2014). Prepared the FY12 annual report to BPA.
2015: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Begin evaluating unmanned aerial systems (UAS) to replace manned helicopter redd surveys. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Uploaded the PIT-tag data to the central database for public access. Evaluate growth and survival of subyearlings tagged with 8-mm PIT tags in a laboratory experiment. Collect data on smallmouth bass predation on subyearlings in both Hells Canyon and Lower Granite Reservoir. Collect and use otoliths to determine early life history events and life history variation in Snake River fall Chinook. Published Tiffan et al. (2015). Prepared the FY13 annual report to BPA.
2016: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Begin a field test using 8-mm PIT tags. Uploaded the PIT-tag data to the central database for public access. Collect data on smallmouth bass predation on subyearlings in Lower Granite Reservoir. Demonstrated that stable isotopes could be used to distinguish hatchery and natural-origin subyearlings. Collect and use otoliths to determine early life history events and life history variation in Snake River fall Chinook. Demonstrate that UASs can be used to make reliable estimates of aerial redd counts. Manned helicopter flights no longer used. Published Tiffan and Hurst (2016), Erhardt and Tiffan (2016), Tiffan et al. (2016), and Groves et al. (2016). Prepared the FY14 annual report to BPA.
2017: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds using UAS from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Uploaded the PIT-tag data to the central database for public access. Collect data on smallmouth bass predation on subyearlings in Lower Granite Reservoir. Demonstrated that stable isotopes could be used to distinguish hatchery and natural-origin subyearlings. Collect and use otoliths to determine early life history events and life history variation in Snake River fall Chinook. Developed first version of a two-stage state-space life-cycle for naturally produced fall Chinook salmon in the Snake River Basin. Published Tiffan et al. (2017a,b). Prepared the FY15 annual report to BPA and contributed chapter to life-cycle modeling report to ISAB (Perry et al. 2017).
2018: Implemented weekly surveys for fall Chinook salmon redds using UAS from October to December over 173 km of the Snake River. Used underwater video cameras for counting redds that were too deep to observe from the air throughout 142 km of the Snake River. Beach seined to 3-4 days a week covering 142 km of river from April to July, implanted PIT-tags into subyearling Chinook salmon, and took genetic samples. Uploaded the PIT-tag data to the central database for public access. Collect data on smallmouth bass predation on subyearlings in Lower Granite Reservoir. Demonstrated that stable isotopes could be used to distinguish hatchery and natural-origin subyearlings. Collect and use otoliths to determine early life history events and life history variation in Snake River fall Chinook. Completed development of statistical methods to estimate the number of natural-origin juvenile fall Chinook passing Lower Granite Dam that will be used in life-cycle modeling and submitted associated manuscript to Biometrics. Published Connor et al. (2018), Erhardt and Tiffan (2018), Erhardt et al. (2018), Hegg et al. (2018a,b), and Tiffan et al. (2018). Prepared the FY16 annual report to BPA.
| Assessment Number: | 1991-029-00-NPCC-20210312 |
|---|---|
| Project: | 1991-029-00 - Snake River Fall Chinook Research & Monitoring |
| Review: | 2019-2021 Mainstem/Program Support |
| Proposal: | NPCC19-1991-029-00 |
| Proposal State: | Pending Council Recommendation |
| Approved Date: | 8/25/2019 |
| Recommendation: | Implement |
| Comments: |
Continue implementation through next review cycle, and address ISRP qualifications in next annual report. Given the relationship of this work project to the fall chinook production efforts in the Snake River, this project will be considered in context during the 2021 Habitat and Hatchery Review. See Programmatic issue for Hatchery-related work. [Background: See https:/www.nwcouncil.org/fish-and-wildlife/fish-and-wildlife-program/project-reviews-and-recommendations/mainstem-review] |
| Assessment Number: | 1991-029-00-ISRP-20190404 |
|---|---|
| Project: | 1991-029-00 - Snake River Fall Chinook Research & Monitoring |
| Review: | 2019-2021 Mainstem/Program Support |
| Proposal Number: | NPCC19-1991-029-00 |
| Completed Date: | None |
| First Round ISRP Date: | 4/4/2019 |
| First Round ISRP Rating: | Meets Scientific Review Criteria |
| First Round ISRP Comment: | |
Comment:The ISRP was impressed by the proposal, results-to-date, and the project review presentation. There are, however, several items that the proponents should consider (these are detailed below). Most importantly, the ISRP would appreciate knowing the topics and timelines for completing the multi-part synthesis (i.e., peer-reviewed publications) over the next year or two. 1. Objectives, Significance to Regional Programs, and Technical BackgroundProject objectives are to (1) inform recovery actions taken to increase the abundance, productivity, and spawning distribution of natural-origin adults, and (2) inform recovery actions taken to increase the abundance and diversity of natural-origin subyearlings during early freshwater rearing and migration. The project objectives are well aligned with the Snake River fall Chinook salmon recovery plan, the current biological opinion, and the Council's 2014 Fish and Wildlife Program and 2017 Research Plan. However, the proponents should establish quantitative objectives, specific timelines, and hypotheses to guide the research/monitoring. The stated objectives are actually work elements described in vague terms as to what is expected to be accomplished. Although the project objectives are not quantitative, the text associated with each objective identified criteria for success. That said, the ISRP would like to see a long-range vision articulated for the project, as well as criteria for success identified for that vision. The proponents mention that several regional programs use the data that are generated by the project. However, it is not clear to the ISRP that these regional programs require those data. Please consider adding letters of support from those programs to future proposals. 2. Results and Adaptive ManagementStatus and trend monitoring of juvenile and adult fall Chinook are described and provide important information on the recovery of this ESU. The project's monitoring program revealed strong density dependence in fall Chinook salmon recruitment. The mechanism leading to this is unknown. The ISRP also notes that millions of hatchery fish are released with a large portion (20% or more) unmarked, leading to less certainty about the status of the natural population. The proponents and decision-makers associated with this project should carefully consider these issues in crafting future project actions. The proponents make a few statements that would benefit from further explanation: · Density dependence (p. 6): "Although it is not likely that the capacity of the spawning habitat is a large factor for the density dependent population response being observed (Groves et al. 2013*), we have observed large-scale redd superimposition at some spawning areas that could explain this." The ISRP is curious as to why other possible factors (e.g., juvenile growth) were not considered. · Is there a publication or document showing how the life-cycle and passage models are linked (see p. 16)? And how are the outputs from that linkage effective in improving population status and management? · The proponents state that they account for climate change, predation, and potential food web changes (p. 16) "by fitting stock-recruitment functions to predict changes in adult and juvenile abundance from covariates derived from empirical data collected on stream flow, temperature, and ocean conditions." This is confusing to the ISRP since the proponents do not collect data on these important factors. What is the origin of these data? · Budget (p. 22): It would be useful to know the amounts devoted to data synthesis and preparation of professional publications in each year, as well as for public outreach. 3. Methods: Project Relationships, Work Types, and DeliverablesAlthough specific methodology was not described in the proposal, annual reports provided more details. The reports noted that more accurate identification of redds is needed. Deliverables noted in the proposal included redd counts, spawner origin determination based on PBT (300 fish), stock-recruitment analysis, juvenile PIT tagging, juvenile run reconstruction, the life cycle model, and associated information. The project uses standard statistical methods. Project relationships are described at several places in the proposal. However, the mechanisms underlying these relationships are not always clearly described. Are there any problems or issues associated with project relationships that ISRP could assist with in the near future? |
|
| Documentation Links: | |
| Assessment Number: | 1991-029-00-NPCC-20100924 |
|---|---|
| Project: | 1991-029-00 - Snake River Fall Chinook Research & Monitoring |
| Review: | RME / AP Category Review |
| Proposal: | RMECAT-1991-029-00 |
| Proposal State: | Pending BPA Response |
| Approved Date: | 6/10/2011 |
| Recommendation: | Fund (Qualified) |
| Comments: | Implement with conditions through 2016: Implementation based on outcome of Lower Snake Comp Review process and relationship to and a regional hatchery effects. |
| Conditions: | |
| Council Condition #1 Programmatic Issue: RMECAT #4 Hatchery Effectiveness—. |
| Assessment Number: | 1991-029-00-ISRP-20101015 |
|---|---|
| Project: | 1991-029-00 - Snake River Fall Chinook Research & Monitoring |
| Review: | RME / AP Category Review |
| Proposal Number: | RMECAT-1991-029-00 |
| Completed Date: | 12/17/2010 |
| Final Round ISRP Date: | 12/17/2010 |
| Final Round ISRP Rating: | Meets Scientific Review Criteria |
| Final Round ISRP Comment: | |
|
This ongoing project has collected field data on Snake River fall Chinook salmon spawning activity, juvenile recruitment, survival, and growth for almost two decades, and proposes to continue these studies. The project also manages a very ambitious PIT-tagging program, with almost 400,000 hatchery fall Chinook PIT tagged annually. This project has provided a large portion of the available data on the Snake River fall Chinook Salmon ESU. The data have been used for development of the recovery plan, for planning of the Lyons Ferry hatchery program, and for design of the summer flow augmentation program. The study documented overwintering of juvenile fall Chinook salmon in the hydropower system reservoirs, and contributed to the decision to extend the operation of the juvenile bypass system at Lower Granite Dam later into the fall. This project is a collaborative effort between the USFWS and the USGS, and will provide information essential to NOAA life-cycle modeling efforts. A number of additional Federal and State agencies are involved in data collecting and reporting. The activities funded by this proposal would not duplicate other efforts.
This project is well integrated with other regional RM&E efforts relating to Snake River fall Chinook, as would be expected of a project with a nearly 20-year history. The proposal addresses RPAs in the BiOp, the AMIP, and Council’s draft MERR plan. The 2008 BiOp calls for (continuing) investigations of the early life history of Snake River fall Chinook salmon and of the effects of the hatchery program on natural productivity. The NPCC’s Fish and Wildlife Program calls for research on the effects of predation in the mainstem on juvenile salmonids, as does the Adaptive Management Implementation Plan (AMIP). The AMIP also calls for the development of improved life-cycle and passage models for ESA-listed salmonid stocks. The proposal has easily identifiable objectives and tasks related to these needs. This was a well-written proposal for a project with an excellent track record of success and accomplishment (e.g., 32 peer-reviewed journal articles) over its long history. Project proponents have made a number of presentations to the ISAB and ISRP over the years in which major findings have been analyzed and discussed. The project has clearly benefited Snake River fall Chinook salmon over the years and will likely continue to do so. In particular, this proposal seems to be especially good at describing how data collection and data analysis/modeling will work together. It is more than a monitoring project. It is truly a combination monitoring and research/modeling effort. Their proposal is thus a well-synthesized effort at data collection and high-level analyses with clear applicability to management. The itemized list of management changes that have resulted from the findings of this study constitutes strong evidence of adaptive management. Their general approach could (and should) be applied to other programs in the Basin. Some limitations on the extent and reliability of data collected by this project have been resolved (differentiating between natural-origin Fall and Spring Chinook subyearlings and between natural-origin Fall Chinook and hatchery-origin subyearlings), while others have not (inability to tag subyearlings <49 mm, uncertainty about effects of flow on beach-seining efficiency, lack of data on passage of juveniles during winter months). One of the highlights of the project’s discoveries has been the recognition of a reservoir overwintering life history attribute in some Snake River fall Chinook, and extension of operation of the juvenile bypass systems at the lower Snake dams reflects this new understanding of year-round movement patterns. The research questions have been refined and focused over the years, and are addressing some of the most critical data gaps concerning this ESU. The technical background and objectives were clearly organized and explained. For each objective, detailed methods are provided. The project relies on standard field sampling methods. Deliverables, work elements, metrics and methods are well described in the proposal. The discussions of population modeling and the approaches to fitting stock-recruitment curves were especially thorough. Project proponents appear well equipped to carry out the work. Of particular value in this proposed work are their analyses of abundance and growth data with stock recruitment relationships to address the idea of density dependence in supplementation programs. Post supplementation, there has been a significant decrease in smolt size. Hatchery supplementation has been associated with large increases in redd counts, followed by a leveling off/slight decline of natural fish. There are some indications that density dependent factors might be acting as stock size rebuilds. Whether or not density-dependence or other hatchery-wild interactions are occurring may be a contentious issue, but regardless of the outcome, addressing these questions with their long-term data sets is a highly important use of the data, and an appropriate approach for evaluating and shaping other supplementation projects in the basin as well. Results of the analysis should provide a biological basis for recovery goals. The proponents also have a riverine bass predation element to their project that will provide information related to survival. This project is exemplary in that it is making the attempt to truly assess a supplementation program not just through intermediate steps such as more smolts or more redds, but in terms of its ultimate impact on recovery, the wild stock, density effects, and other higher level population dynamics. |
|
| First Round ISRP Date: | 10/18/2010 |
| First Round ISRP Rating: | Meets Scientific Review Criteria |
| First Round ISRP Comment: | |
|
This ongoing project has collected field data on Snake River fall Chinook salmon spawning activity, juvenile recruitment, survival, and growth for almost two decades, and proposes to continue these studies. The project also manages a very ambitious PIT-tagging program, with almost 400,000 hatchery fall Chinook PIT tagged annually. This project has provided a large portion of the available data on the Snake River fall Chinook Salmon ESU. The data have been used for development of the recovery plan, for planning of the Lyons Ferry hatchery program, and for design of the summer flow augmentation program. The study documented overwintering of juvenile fall Chinook salmon in the hydropower system reservoirs, and contributed to the decision to extend the operation of the juvenile bypass system at Lower Granite Dam later into the fall. This project is a collaborative effort between the USFWS and the USGS, and will provide information essential to NOAA life-cycle modeling efforts. A number of additional Federal and State agencies are involved in data collecting and reporting. The activities funded by this proposal would not duplicate other efforts. This project is well integrated with other regional RM&E efforts relating to Snake River fall Chinook, as would be expected of a project with a nearly 20-year history. The proposal addresses RPAs in the BiOp, the AMIP, and Council’s draft MERR plan. The 2008 BiOp calls for (continuing) investigations of the early life history of Snake River fall Chinook salmon and of the effects of the hatchery program on natural productivity. The NPCC’s Fish and Wildlife Program calls for research on the effects of predation in the mainstem on juvenile salmonids, as does the Adaptive Management Implementation Plan (AMIP). The AMIP also calls for the development of improved life-cycle and passage models for ESA-listed salmonid stocks. The proposal has easily identifiable objectives and tasks related to these needs. This was a well-written proposal for a project with an excellent track record of success and accomplishment (e.g., 32 peer-reviewed journal articles) over its long history. Project proponents have made a number of presentations to the ISAB and ISRP over the years in which major findings have been analyzed and discussed. The project has clearly benefited Snake River fall Chinook salmon over the years and will likely continue to do so. In particular, this proposal seems to be especially good at describing how data collection and data analysis/modeling will work together. It is more than a monitoring project. It is truly a combination monitoring and research/modeling effort. Their proposal is thus a well-synthesized effort at data collection and high-level analyses with clear applicability to management. The itemized list of management changes that have resulted from the findings of this study constitutes strong evidence of adaptive management. Their general approach could (and should) be applied to other programs in the Basin. Some limitations on the extent and reliability of data collected by this project have been resolved (differentiating between natural-origin Fall and Spring Chinook subyearlings and between natural-origin Fall Chinook and hatchery-origin subyearlings), while others have not (inability to tag subyearlings <49 mm, uncertainty about effects of flow on beach-seining efficiency, lack of data on passage of juveniles during winter months). One of the highlights of the project’s discoveries has been the recognition of a reservoir overwintering life history attribute in some Snake River fall Chinook, and extension of operation of the juvenile bypass systems at the lower Snake dams reflects this new understanding of year-round movement patterns. The research questions have been refined and focused over the years, and are addressing some of the most critical data gaps concerning this ESU. The technical background and objectives were clearly organized and explained. For each objective, detailed methods are provided. The project relies on standard field sampling methods. Deliverables, work elements, metrics and methods are well described in the proposal. The discussions of population modeling and the approaches to fitting stock-recruitment curves were especially thorough. Project proponents appear well equipped to carry out the work. Of particular value in this proposed work are their analyses of abundance and growth data with stock recruitment relationships to address the idea of density dependence in supplementation programs. Post supplementation, there has been a significant decrease in smolt size. Hatchery supplementation has been associated with large increases in redd counts, followed by a leveling off/slight decline of natural fish. There are some indications that density dependent factors might be acting as stock size rebuilds. Whether or not density-dependence or other hatchery-wild interactions are occurring may be a contentious issue, but regardless of the outcome, addressing these questions with their long-term data sets is a highly important use of the data, and an appropriate approach for evaluating and shaping other supplementation projects in the basin as well. Results of the analysis should provide a biological basis for recovery goals. The proponents also have a riverine bass predation element to their project that will provide information related to survival. This project is exemplary in that it is making the attempt to truly assess a supplementation program not just through intermediate steps such as more smolts or more redds, but in terms of its ultimate impact on recovery, the wild stock, density effects, and other higher level population dynamics. |
|
| Documentation Links: |
|
| Assessment Number: | 1991-029-00-NPCC-20090924 |
|---|---|
| Project: | 1991-029-00 - Snake River Fall Chinook Research & Monitoring |
| Review: | FY07-09 Solicitation Review |
| Approved Date: | 10/23/2006 |
| Recommendation: | Fund |
| Comments: |
| Assessment Number: | 1998-010-03-NPCC-20090924 |
|---|---|
| Project: | 1998-010-03 - Spawning Distribution of Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon |
| Review: | FY07-09 Solicitation Review |
| Approved Date: | 10/23/2006 |
| Recommendation: | Fund |
| Comments: |
| Assessment Number: | 1991-029-00-ISRP-20060831 |
|---|---|
| Project: | 1991-029-00 - Snake River Fall Chinook Research & Monitoring |
| Review: | FY07-09 Solicitation Review |
| Completed Date: | 8/31/2006 |
| Final Round ISRP Date: | None |
| Final Round ISRP Rating: | Meets Scientific Review Criteria |
| Final Round ISRP Comment: | |
|
This is a well-prepared proposal to continue a project that has been exceptionally productive and well organized. In many respects it is a model proposal. The project is devoted to Snake River fall Chinook and has a proven track record of providing important information necessary to this species' recovery and deserves to be continued.
The technical and scientific background is very well written with a clear explanation of the project's history and a persuasive rationale for the work. A point the sponsors may wish to consider is that the use of F1 and F2 generations for supplementation seem ambiguous, and probably inappropriately used here. Is the F1 generation those individuals that are of hatchery-origin, and the F2 those individual born in the wild from the F1 (hatchery-origin) parents? In at least some circles, the hatchery-origin adults spawning in the wild would be the P1 generation; the progeny of these hatchery fish spawning naturally the F1 generation, and their progeny the F2 generation. The proposal does a very good job of relating the work to the FCRPS BiOps, the Council's Fish and Wildlife Program, and the various COE programs. Subbasin plans aren't mentioned although Snake River fall Chinook do enter the lower reaches of several subbasins. There is a good description of the relationship of this project to other work. The proposal sets a standard for a concise year-by-year summary of the project's history, along with the reports and peer-reviewed publications. The proposal sets an example for others by identifying the adaptive management implications of their investigations. Objectives, hypotheses, and methods are clearly described, along with the timelines for completion. The proposal was very explicit, right down to the sample size and statistical tests in many instances. The methods have a proven track record. One statement that may be in error is that "growth of parr and smolts will be directly proportional to temperature." Actually, this statement will only be true over the cooler range and if food availability increases in direct proportion to temperature and provides enough to compensate for the increased basal metabolic requirements of the fish that accompany higher temperatures. At higher temperatures, generally above about 18°C for Chinook salmon, growth rate normally declines because of over-riding metabolic demands. In other words, there may be some scenarios in which growth of parr and smolts is inversely proportional to temperature if temperatures are high and food resources are inadequate. An accurate estimation of food availability is needed, especially when making inferences about the potential for reduced growth of wild fish in the face of large numbers of supplemented fish (these comments apply to Objective 2). The project will be thoroughly monitored and evaluated. The statistical analyses have been peer-reviewed (in prior publications) and are suitable. The proposal gives a good description of how the results can feed back into hydrosystem operations decisions, e.g., summer spill. An excellent feature of the proposal is clear identification of how they are going to use their primary data to test prevailing assumptions about the state of nature, and then the implications of the inference for the next steps in developing management options. Most proposals fail to make a clear connection between the studies they are proposing and deciding among (or designing new) management schemes. The results will be made available in reports, peer-reviewed publications, internet postings, and presentations. Plans for long-term storage of data and meta-data are not completely described, but they are assumed to be adequate. The project staff are some of the best publishers among all BPA projects. In summary, this is a fine example of an effective proposal. |
|
| Documentation Links: |
|
| Assessment Number: | 1998-010-03-ISRP-20060831 |
|---|---|
| Project: | 1998-010-03 - Spawning Distribution of Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon |
| Review: | FY07-09 Solicitation Review |
| Completed Date: | 8/31/2006 |
| Final Round ISRP Date: | None |
| Final Round ISRP Rating: | Meets Scientific Review Criteria (Qualified) |
| Final Round ISRP Comment: | |
|
The ISRP is not requesting a response, but qualifies this fundable recommendation because this is such a small activity or component of the Fish and Wildlife Program. It would be better if it was more clearly integrated into a larger project. Furthermore, sponsors do not justify sufficiently why this project is critical and how it fits into and relates to other projects. At a regional scale, it is not clear why this project should continue. How is this used and related to other projects? Does this project have application beyond this site? Can this approach be applied some other places at low cost?
Besides the usefulness of the method in this particular case, the method may have potential application elsewhere. A key factor would be to develop the ability to see redds in places not easily accessible. The project should not only emphasize current usage of the method but look for ways to improve the method so that the application could be more widespread. The project history was brief, with little development of past findings. The budget seems reasonable given the scope and potential value of the work. |
|
| Documentation Links: |
|
| Project Relationships: |
This project Merged From 1998-010-03 effective on 12/1/2010
Relationship Description: Effective 12/1/10, work from 1998-010-03 is moved to 1991-029-00. Since contract ends 11/30/10, 6-months of work will be added to contract 47759. The 2 projects will start a new contract 6/1/11 with a combined FY11 budget under project 1991-029-00. |
|---|
Additional Relationships Explanation:
All the work proposed herein depends on coordinated, collaborative, complimentary efforts that are not duplicative. There is a relatively small community of biologists and researchers that works on Snake River fall Chinook salmon, so all work must be coordinated.
Adult Status and Trend Monitoring FY20–24
See Table 1 in the “Technical Background” section.
USACE counts adults at Ice Harbor, Lower Monumental, Little Goose, and Lower Granite dams. NPT leads run reconstruction at Lower Granite Dam. NPT counts redds in the Clearwater, Salmon, Imnaha, and Grande Ronde rivers. We count redds in the lower Snake River upstream of Lower Granite Reservoir in cooperation with IPC. Redds are counted downstream of Lower Granite Dam by WDFW and PNNL. A large group of biologists monitors harvest (Table 1). Common methods are used and the data are shared and co-analyzed. Staff of IPC, NPT, NOAA, USFWS, USGS, and WDFW have agreed to conduct joint analyses to accomplish objective 1 in this proposal.
Juvenile Status and Trend Monitoring FY20–24
See Table 2 in the “Technical Background” section.
The Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission operates oversees the collection and dissemination of PIT-tag tagging and detection data. NPT beach seines and PIT tags natural-origin subyearlings in the Clearwater River. We beach seine and PIT tag natural-origin subyearlings in the lower Snake River upstream of Lower Granite Reservoir. NPT PIT tags subsamples of the hatchery-origin subyearlings released at the Nez Perce Tribal Hatchery and the acclimation facilities upstream of Lower Granite Reservoir. IPC PIT tags subsamples of the hatchery-origin subyearlings reared at Irrigon Hatchery and released in the Salmon River. FPC oversees the smolt monitoring program that subsamples the subyearling outmigration and reports daily passage indices at collector dams. FPC collects subsamples of subyearlings from the run-at-large at Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville dams and calculates smolt passage indices. Staff of NPT, NOAA, USFWS, and USGS have agreed to conduct joint analyses to accomplish objective 2 in this proposal.
Life-Cycle and Passage Modeling
Development and use of a life cycle model for Snake River Basin Fall Chinook Salmon is presently a high priority for NOAA as outlined in the AMIP. Our staff has collaborated with NOAA in the past (e.g., Williams et al. 2008), participates on the AMIP modeling group steering committee, and provides experience, data, and analyses compiled over last 28 years to NOAA as modeling efforts proceed. For example, NOAA staff recently utilized our model (Perry et al., 2017) to assess the potential effects of proposed harvest control rules upstream of Lower Granite Dam. The stock-recruitment based models we are developing differ from very detailed life-cycle and passage models (e.g., COMPASS) because the stock-recruitment models do not fully link all life stages or include fine scale predictors (e.g., pre-spawning mortality, fecundity, passage survival at a given dam). Instead, the model statistically links factors affecting survival and recruitment from adult spawners at Lower Granite to their juvenile progeny in subsequent years and survival from juveniles at Lower Granite to adults returning to Lower Granite. By statistically linking these life-stage transitions to environmental covariates and dam operations, our model will be useful for informing adaptive management. Moreover, our proposed work will produce models to predict abundance of natural-origin adults and the abundance of natural-origin juveniles. Though abundances of natural-origin adults and juveniles are inexorably linked, our models will be separate. Life-cycle and passage models will link these life stages and they will be modified according to results produced by this project.
TDG Investigations
Routine monitoring of gas bubble trauma (GBT) from elevated total dissolved gas (TDG) is currently carried out by the Smolt Monitoring Program that is coordinated by the Fish Passage Center (project 198712700). Beginning in 2019, a new “flexible” spill program will be implemented and evaluated. BPA has expressed interest in having staff of project 199102900 potentially conduct some monitoring of the effects of this program under their current project. At the time of submission of this proposal, BPA was still in the midst of internal discussions on the nature and scope of this work. TDG investigation was an objective in our 2011 proposal and we retain it here to meet any requested needs that BPA might have. One benefit of our model to estimate juvenile abundance at mainstem dams is that we will be able to statistically assess the effect of daily variation in gas levels to daily subyearling survival. This has been impossible to do until now.
|
Work Classes
 |
| Name (Identifier) | Area Type | Source for Limiting Factor Information | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Type of Location | Count | ||
| Lower Snake-Asotin (17060103) | HUC 4 | Expert Panel Assessment Unit | 3 |
| Hells Canyon (17060101) | HUC 4 | QHA (Qualitative Habitat Assessment) | 38 |
| Lower Snake-Tucannon (17060107) | HUC 4 | Expert Panel Assessment Unit | 7 |
| Lower Snake (17060110) | HUC 4 | None | |
| Middle Columbia-Lake Wallula (17070101) | HUC 4 | None | |
| Middle Columbia-Hood (17070105) | HUC 4 | EDT (Ecosystem Diagnosis and Treatment) | 263 |
| Lower Columbia-Sandy (17080001) | HUC 4 | EDT (Ecosystem Diagnosis and Treatment) | 223 |
| Lower Columbia-Clatskanie (17080003) | HUC 4 | EDT (Ecosystem Diagnosis and Treatment) | 350 |
| Lower Columbia (17080006) | HUC 4 | EDT (Ecosystem Diagnosis and Treatment) | 74 |
| Lower Willamette (17090012) | HUC 4 | EDT (Ecosystem Diagnosis and Treatment) | 312 |
| Clearwater (17060306) | HUC 4 | Expert Panel Assessment Unit | 12 |
| The Dalles Dam to John Day Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| John Day Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| The Dalles Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Confluence of Snake and Columbia River to Priest Rapids Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Ice Harbor Dam to Lower Monumental Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Confluence of Snake and Columbia River to Ice Harbor Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| McNary Dam to Confluence of Snake and Columbia River | Mainstem | None | |
| John Day Dam to McNary Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Priest Rapids Dam to Wanapum Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| McNary Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Ice Harbor Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Priest Rapids Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Lower Monumental Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Little Goose Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Little Goose Dam to Lower Granite Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Lower Monumental Dam to Little Goose Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Lower Granite Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Lower Granite Dam to Hells Canyon Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Wanapum Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Dworshak Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Chief Joseph Dam to Grand Coulee Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Wells Dam to Chief Joseph Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Chief Joseph Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Grand Coulee Dam to Keenleyside Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Wells Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Rocky Reach Dam to Wells Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Rocky Reach Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Rock Island Dam to Rocky Reach Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Wanapum Dam to Rock Island Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Rock Island Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Grand Coulee Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Bonneville Dam to The Dalles Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Bonneville Dam - Powerhouse 1 | Mainstem | None | |
| Bonneville Dam - Spillway | Mainstem | None | |
| Bonneville Dam - Powerhouse 2 | Mainstem | None | |
| Dworshak Reservoir | Mainstem | None | |
| Hells Canyon Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Hungry Horse Dam beginning of Hungry Horse Reservoir | Mainstem | None | |
| Kerr Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Kerr Dam to Hungry Horse Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Hungry Horse Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Libby Dam to end of Mainstem Kootenay River | Mainstem | None | |
| Corra Linn Dam to Libby Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Libby Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Albeni Falls Dam into Lake Pend Oreille | Mainstem | None | |
| Box Canyon Dam to Albeni Falls Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Confluence of Snake and Clearwater River to Dworshak Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Confluence of MF and CF Willamette River to Confluence of MF Willamette River and Fall Creek | Mainstem | None | |
| Detroit Reservoir | Mainstem | None | |
| Detroit Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Big Cliff Dam to Detroit Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Green Peter Reservoir | Mainstem | None | |
| Foster Dam to Green Peter Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Confluence of North and South Santiam River to Foster Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Confluence of North and South Santiam River to Big Cliff Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Confluence of Willamette and Santiam River to Confluence of North and South Santiam River | Mainstem | None | |
| Big Cliff Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Foster Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Green Peter Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Fern Ridge Reservoir | Mainstem | None | |
| Confluence of Willamette and Long Tom River to Fern Ridge Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Fern Ridge Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Dexter Dam to Lookout Point Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Lookout Point Dam to Hills Creek Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Fall Creek Reservoir | Mainstem | None | |
| Blue River Lake | Mainstem | None | |
| Cougar Reservoir | Mainstem | None | |
| Leaburg Dam to Confluence of McKenzie and Blue River | Mainstem | None | |
| Confluence of Willamette and McKenzie River to Leaburg Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Leaburg Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Confluence of McKenzie and Blue River to Blue River Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Blue River Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Confluence of McKenzie and South Fork McKenzie River to Cougar Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Cougar Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Confluence of McKenzie and Blue River to Confluence of McKenzie and South Fork McKenzie River | Mainstem | None | |
| Confluence of Willamette and Columbia River to Confluence of MF Willamette and CF Willamette River | Mainstem | None | |
| Confluence of MF Willamette River and Fall Creek to Fall Creek Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Confluence of MF Willamette River and Fall Creek to Dexter Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Fall Creek Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Lookout Point Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Dexter Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Hills Creek Reservoir | Mainstem | None | |
| Hills Creek Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Cottage Grove Lake | Mainstem | None | |
| Dorena Lake | Mainstem | None | |
| Confluence of MF and CF Willamette River to Confluence of CF Willamette and Row River | Mainstem | None | |
| Dorena Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Confluence of CF Willamette River and Row River to Cottage Grove Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Cottage Grove Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Confluence of CF Willamette River and Row River to Dorena Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Albeni Falls Dam | Mainstem | None | |
| Work Class | Work Elements | ||||||||
| Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation + Data Management |
|
||||||||
| Work Class | Work Elements | ||||||||
| Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation + Data Management |
|
||||||||
| Work Class | Work Elements | ||||||||
| Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation + Data Management |
|
||||||||
| Work Class | Work Elements | ||||||||||
| Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation + Data Management |
|
||||||||||
| Work Class | Work Elements | ||||||
| Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation + Data Management |
|
||||||
| Work Class | Work Elements | ||||||
| Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation + Data Management |
|
||||||
| Project Deliverables | How the project deliverables help meet this objective* |
|---|---|
| Redd counts (DELV-1) | Redd surveys in upper Hells Canyon will be particularly important in determining the spatial spawning distribution and abundance of fish in the “natural production area”, as well as elsewhere, and to gauge the effectiveness of this recovery strategy. The ongoing redd counts produced by this project will be used to determine if spawner abundance is increasing, remaining steady, or declining. These are all key parameters that will be used by NOAA to gauge the continued recovery of the Snake River fall Chinook stock and to determine if this objective has been achieved. |
|
|
|
| Stock-recruitment analyses (DELV-3) | The stock-recruitment models and analyses of relevant covariates produced for this deliverable will produce estimates fall Chinook spawner capacity and productivity and identification of the factors the affect them. These are key parameters that will be used by NOAA to gauge the continued recovery of the Snake River fall Chinook stock and to determine if this objective has been achieved. For example, the fall Chinook life-cycle model can be used to evaluate the effect of alternative operational scenarios on population trajectories and extinction risk.The models and data collected for this deliverable will increase our understanding of measures that can be implemented to accomplish this objective. |
|
|
|
| Life-cycle model (DELV-7) | The life-cycle model for Snake River fall Chinook salmon will help meet both project objectives by evaluating the efficacy of different recovery, biological, and environmental scenarios that will increase fish abundance, productivity, and diversity. This will be a critical evaluation tool for this population well into the future. |
|
|
|
| Project Deliverables | How the project deliverables help meet this objective* |
|---|---|
| Origin determination of spawners (DELV-2) | Determining the origin of fish spawning in the upper reach of Hells Canyon will indicate whether the concept of the natural emphasis area is having the intended effect of increasing the proportion of natural-origin spawners in that area. If so, one of the criteria for delisting—a strong, largely natural-origin component of the population that is minimally influenced by hatchery fish—would be met, thus contributing to this objective. |
|
|
|
| Juvenile PIT tagging (DELV-5) | The annual PIT tagging of natural-origin subyearlings provide the necessary juvenile data for evaluating the long-term status and trends in the abundance, diversity, and productivity of the juvenile population, thus accomplishing this objective. Further, it provides the necessary juvenile data for this life stage of the life-cycle model. |
|
|
|
| Juvenile run reconstruction (DELV-6) | The passage models produced for this deliverable for natural-origin subyearlings will produce estimates of abundance that can be used to determine if the abundance of the juvenile population has increased, thus accomplishing Objective 2. Moreover, it may be possible to develop separate life-cycle models for each of the three main production areas (upper Snake River, lower Snake River, and Clearwater River) that would allow us to evaluate the contribution to the juvenile population from each area, and thus accomplish the diversity portion of Objective 2. This is a desire that has been expressed by NOAA, but it would be a complicated process. |
|
|
|
| RM&E Protocol | Deliverable | Method Name and Citation |
| Understanding the status of Snake River basin fall Chinook salmon relative to recovery criteria v1.0 | Redd counts (DELV-1)<br />Origin determination of spawners (DELV-2)<br />Stock-recruitment analyses (DELV-3)<br />Life-cycle model (DELV-7) | |
| Variation in passage abundance of natural Snake River basin fall Chinook salmon juveniles v1.0 | Juvenile PIT tagging (DELV-5)<br />Juvenile run reconstruction (DELV-6)<br />Life-cycle model (DELV-7) |
| Project Deliverable | Start | End | Budget |
|---|---|---|---|
| Redd counts (DELV-1) | 2020 | 2024 | $1,500,000 |
| Origin determination of spawners (DELV-2) | 2020 | 2024 | $750,000 |
| Stock-recruitment analyses (DELV-3) | 2020 | 2024 | $1,041,510 |
| Juvenile PIT tagging (DELV-5) | 2020 | 2024 | $1,500,000 |
| Juvenile run reconstruction (DELV-6) | 2020 | 2024 | $1,041,515 |
| Life-cycle model (DELV-7) | 2020 | 2023 | $800,000 |
| Total | $6,633,025 |
| Fiscal Year | Proposal Budget Limit | Actual Request | Explanation of amount above FY2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $1,366,605 | $1,366,605 | The budget reflects putting a three-person beach seine/PIT-tagging crew in the field for 17 weeks during the spring; putting two UAS crews in the field to conduct aerial redd counts in Hells Canyon; putting a three-person crew in the field to count deepwater redds in Hells Canyon; putting a three to four-person crew in the field to collect TDG-related data; life-cycle modeling; and project management. |
| 2021 | $1,366,605 | $1,366,605 | The budget reflects putting a three-person beach seine/PIT-tagging crew in the field for 17 weeks during the spring; putting two UAS crews in the field to conduct aerial redd counts in Hells Canyon; putting a three-person crew in the field to count deepwater redds in Hells Canyon; putting a three to four-person crew in the field to collect TDG-related data; life-cycle modeling; and project management. |
| 2022 | $1,366,605 | $1,366,605 | Previously described PIT-tagging and redd search work will continue. The budget is kept at the same level; however, it is anticipated that the life-cycle model will be nearly complete and only a small amount of project funds will go toward making model runs for specific requests. It is also anticipated that the TDG work will be complete unless BPA desires more work to be conducted. If no additional work is requested, then the budget could be reduced to $1,055,007 in FY22. |
| 2023 | $1,366,605 | $1,366,605 | Previously described PIT-tagging and redd search work will continue as well as completing manuscripts on project results. Depending on whether there is additional requested work, the budget could be reduced to $1,055,007 in FY23. |
| 2024 | $1,366,605 | $1,166,605 | Previously described PIT-tagging and redd search work will continue as well as completing manuscripts on project results. Depending on whether there is additional requested work, the budget could be reduced to $1,055,007 in FY24 |
| Total | $6,833,025 | $6,633,025 |
| There are no Line Item Budget entries for this proposal. |
| Assessment Number: | 1991-029-00-ISRP-20190404 |
|---|---|
| Project: | 1991-029-00 - Snake River Fall Chinook Research & Monitoring |
| Review: | 2019-2021 Mainstem/Program Support |
| Proposal Number: | NPCC19-1991-029-00 |
| Completed Date: | None |
| First Round ISRP Date: | 4/4/2019 |
| First Round ISRP Rating: | Meets Scientific Review Criteria |
| First Round ISRP Comment: | |
Comment:The ISRP was impressed by the proposal, results-to-date, and the project review presentation. There are, however, several items that the proponents should consider (these are detailed below). Most importantly, the ISRP would appreciate knowing the topics and timelines for completing the multi-part synthesis (i.e., peer-reviewed publications) over the next year or two. 1. Objectives, Significance to Regional Programs, and Technical BackgroundProject objectives are to (1) inform recovery actions taken to increase the abundance, productivity, and spawning distribution of natural-origin adults, and (2) inform recovery actions taken to increase the abundance and diversity of natural-origin subyearlings during early freshwater rearing and migration. The project objectives are well aligned with the Snake River fall Chinook salmon recovery plan, the current biological opinion, and the Council's 2014 Fish and Wildlife Program and 2017 Research Plan. However, the proponents should establish quantitative objectives, specific timelines, and hypotheses to guide the research/monitoring. The stated objectives are actually work elements described in vague terms as to what is expected to be accomplished. Although the project objectives are not quantitative, the text associated with each objective identified criteria for success. That said, the ISRP would like to see a long-range vision articulated for the project, as well as criteria for success identified for that vision. The proponents mention that several regional programs use the data that are generated by the project. However, it is not clear to the ISRP that these regional programs require those data. Please consider adding letters of support from those programs to future proposals. 2. Results and Adaptive ManagementStatus and trend monitoring of juvenile and adult fall Chinook are described and provide important information on the recovery of this ESU. The project's monitoring program revealed strong density dependence in fall Chinook salmon recruitment. The mechanism leading to this is unknown. The ISRP also notes that millions of hatchery fish are released with a large portion (20% or more) unmarked, leading to less certainty about the status of the natural population. The proponents and decision-makers associated with this project should carefully consider these issues in crafting future project actions. The proponents make a few statements that would benefit from further explanation: · Density dependence (p. 6): "Although it is not likely that the capacity of the spawning habitat is a large factor for the density dependent population response being observed (Groves et al. 2013*), we have observed large-scale redd superimposition at some spawning areas that could explain this." The ISRP is curious as to why other possible factors (e.g., juvenile growth) were not considered. · Is there a publication or document showing how the life-cycle and passage models are linked (see p. 16)? And how are the outputs from that linkage effective in improving population status and management? · The proponents state that they account for climate change, predation, and potential food web changes (p. 16) "by fitting stock-recruitment functions to predict changes in adult and juvenile abundance from covariates derived from empirical data collected on stream flow, temperature, and ocean conditions." This is confusing to the ISRP since the proponents do not collect data on these important factors. What is the origin of these data? · Budget (p. 22): It would be useful to know the amounts devoted to data synthesis and preparation of professional publications in each year, as well as for public outreach. 3. Methods: Project Relationships, Work Types, and DeliverablesAlthough specific methodology was not described in the proposal, annual reports provided more details. The reports noted that more accurate identification of redds is needed. Deliverables noted in the proposal included redd counts, spawner origin determination based on PBT (300 fish), stock-recruitment analysis, juvenile PIT tagging, juvenile run reconstruction, the life cycle model, and associated information. The project uses standard statistical methods. Project relationships are described at several places in the proposal. However, the mechanisms underlying these relationships are not always clearly described. Are there any problems or issues associated with project relationships that ISRP could assist with in the near future? |
|
| Documentation Links: | |
| Proponent Response: | |
|
|
|
Help
